The fighting in Ukraine took place on Thursday for a week. Lieutenant Colonel at the Norwegian Defense College, Geir Hågen Karlsen, believes the parties are far from a quick solution. He points out that the parties are far apart.
– Ukraine has been clear that they want the whole country back. It includes the Crimea and the Donbas region. Russia, for its part, obviously has ambitions to take control, says Karlsen to Dagbladet.
Stopped by traffic jam
Do not believe in surrender
On Monday, negotiations between Russia and Ukraine began in Belarus. Ukraine’s demands during the talks are crystal clear: Immediate ceasefire and withdrawal of Russian forces, it was said in a statement from President Volodymyr Zelensky’s office just before the meeting.
One of the president’s advisers, Alexey Arestovitch, clearly replied that the demand for withdrawal also applies to Crimea and the Donbas.
Karlsen further explains that one normally conducts military operations to get through a political solution.
Russia has so far not achieved anything significant militarily that can be used for a political solution. From a Ukrainian perspective, it is obvious that they will continue to fight, Karlsen believes.
Lieutenant Colonel Geir Hågen Karlsen at the Norwegian Defense College explains that the Ukraine crisis in the worst case lead to situations we have not seen since World War II. Reporter: Christian Fjermeros
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He adds that it is unrealistic for any of the parties to surrender. He points out that in the short term he envisages Russian forces continuing the offensive against the capital Kyiv.
– But so far there is little progress. They are far from taking control. It is a large city with almost three million inhabitants. There will potentially be lengthy battles before the Russians take control. It is still a long way off, says Karlsen.
He adds:
– Regardless of whether they take control of the capital, there are still large areas in the east that they do not have control over. What we are witnessing is a military situation, which is far from providing a basis for a political decision. This war can be long lasting.
Further warfare
Tom Røseth, associate professor and head teacher of intelligence at the Norwegian Defense College, points out that Putin has put forward his demands to keep Crimea, as well as the desire for a neutral Ukraine, to the French president Emmanuel Macron.
– Both parties are so steep on their demands, that a compromise is difficult to see right now. There is little faith in the conversations that are now taking place. I am afraid we must see a more conclusive result on the ground before a political solution is possible, he explains.
In other words, he thinks further warfare is more realistic.
Røseth points out that a possible scenario further is that Russia gets stuck in a quagmire and loses a significant number of soldiers, but wins little by little, in bloody battles that create “outcry” internationally.
– It can lead to condemnation and unrest at home in Russia. Putin fears destabilization at home, combined with pressure from abroad. Especially from China, which wants diplomatic solutions. It can be a way out, he emphasizes.
MILITARY DEVELOPMENT: Tom Røseth, head teacher in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense College, is aware that military development in the future will be what further defines the room for maneuver. Photo: The Armed Forces
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Different motivation
He points out that another scenario is that Russia manages to regain momentum in the war by occupying significant parts of Ukraine.
– Then we can have another cold war, where Ukraine is divided as Germany became. Unfortunately, that is a possibility.
In any case, Røseth is aware that the future military development will be what defines the room for maneuver for the purpose of negotiation.
– The development on the ground is so inconclusive – fluctuating – still, that no parties are willing to live up to their demands. At least not in public.
Russia took Kherson: – Do not shoot!
– How long can the war last?
– It can last for months. Maybe longer. But an important point I get from my sources in Ukraine is increasing reports of demotivated Russian soldiers. There is a very different motivation from both parties. It is possible that the leadership in Moscow will get increased motivation if Russian forces win more cities, but there is something else with the soldiers. Ukraine has the country’s existence to fight for. It’s more motivating. Motivation in a long war is important, Røseth points out.
Palle Ydstebø, lieutenant colonel at the War College at the Norwegian Defense College, believes that the political dimension of the war is the most important. Nevertheless, he highlights two military scenarios that could contribute to the end of a war.
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Political solution
– The first is that a party decides the war fairly quickly by the other party being knocked out, or surrendering. However, it is very rare. The second is that both parties become totally exhausted. In what becomes a war of attrition, one will usually need a political solution, says Ydstebø.
He points out that Russia failed with a quick decision at the beginning of the war. Therefore, he sees only one realistic military opportunity and points to the outcome of the fighting for Kyiv.
NOT EASY: Lieutenant Colonel at the War School, Palle Ydstebø, does not think the war between Russia and Ukraine has a simple military solution. Photo: The Armed Forces
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– One possibility could be that Ukraine gives in if the fighting becomes so devastating, and that the destruction becomes so great.
He nevertheless considers it unrealistic in view of the will to defend and the efforts Ukraine has shown so far.
Ydstebø also does not believe that the war will end immediately, if it will be decided militarily.
The horror scenario: – The Russians are different
– The reason for this is that the parties have invested so much. For Ukraine, it is about the state’s existence and further development. What is at stake for Russia is its position as a global superpower and prestige. As I read it, I think Russia’s ambition was to win fast. It is said in the run-up, and that I read it from the way the first attack happened, he says.
– But Ukraine has defended itself well, which I think has surprised Russia. Russia entered with a military solution in mind, but this war has no simple military solution, Ydstebø states.
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