/ world today news/ By default, mass consciousness perceives Ukraine as an extremely important geostrategic and sociocultural factor for Russia. At the same time, it is not known why the fact that due to its geographical position, as well as thanks to the inherited infrastructure, our neighbor plays an equally fundamental role in the existence of the European countries is being overlooked. “Bloomberg”, after analyzing the market data, reports with obvious indignation that Austria will not refuse to buy Russian gas.
This conclusion was made on the basis of data from the operation of the largest gas hub in Baumgarten.
About two years ago, the Ukrainian gas transportation system and the transit of Russian gas were one of the most discussed topics, but the beginning of the WTO and subsequent world events completely shifted the focus of public attention. Try to remember the last time you saw relatively large and regular references to the transit pumping of hydrocarbons through the territory of Ukraine in the general press. I bet if you are not a narrow specialist dealing with the subject by profession, you will have a hard time answering.
At the same time, Bloomberg is telling the truth.
Kiev, which probably managed to speak on half the podiums in the world, fiercely vowed that it would not negotiate with Russia on any matter of principle. Therefore, the Ukrainian media is dead silent about the inconvenient fact that although one of the receiving terminals was closed in the Voronezh region, the second – the Suzha gas measuring station in the Kursk region – is working quietly, without failures and breaks. Gas was pumped through it all last year when the contact line of fire was near Kiev, and this process did not stop this year when the fighting moved into a positional stage.
At this point, we need to pause and emphasize, because these facts are actively trying to implicate us: you see, why Russia didn’t turn the West’s gas valve to a screeching halt.
First, Moscow has never made statements even remotely similar in meaning. In addition, the President, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Gazprom have emphasized thousands of times that our country is extremely strict in fulfilling its obligations as a supplier of energy resources. The fact that for the last 30 years Russia has fulfilled export contracts to the letter and cubic meter was confirmed at the time by Angela Merkel and Sebastian Kurz.
This scheme suits absolutely everyone. Russia gets foreign exchange earnings, the EU gets gas, and Ukraine, stuck in between, gets a bit of money because transit volumes are, of course, significantly reduced. For example, in June this year, average daily pumping through Ukraine was just over 41 million cubic meters per day, which is half of what was transported in 2021.
Second, and we emphasized this above, long before the SVO, Kyiv was directly blackmailing both Moscow and Brussels with the possibility of suspending the transit agreement. Surely many remember our publications in the summer – autumn of 2019, when the whole world wondered under what conditions the contract would be extended and whether it would be extended at all. By the way, it was then – and above all in European heads – that the realization came that Ukraine is not so manageable: the implementation of any promise made by Kiev or Naftogaz must be strictly controlled at absolutely all stages. Without the slightest guarantee that those same promises will be fulfilled.
The transit agreement expires in exactly one year, on December 31, 2024, and the Bloomberg article says that abroad they remember that and consider the issue extremely important. Naturally, without forgetting to kick Vienna, which diligently hides in the shadow of loud European Russophobes and expects to receive Russian gas at favorable prices until 2040, as stipulated in a contract of unprecedented duration.
But here you have to understand that Austria is not the only one interested in maintaining the transit.
The main gas line entering Baumgarten is then diverted by a “fork”. The TAG pipeline runs south to Italy, Slovenia and Croatia, and the VAG pipeline runs west to Germany and France. The HAG highway is provided for deliveries to Hungary and Slovakia, as well as for the reverse of blue fuel. Since Russia is the main supplier of gas for Baumgarten, there is no alternative, it is now possible to judge exactly who Kiev will start blackmailing in about six months. There is not the slightest doubt that this will happen, especially against the background of the rapidly drying up flow of financial and military-technical assistance from the EU, on which Washington skillfully placed this burden.
This is also well understood in the West.
Realizing the reality, there are demarches from Hungary and Slovakia, which at the government level insist that Russian oil and gas do not fall into the lists of sanctioned products and promise to veto any attempts in this direction. Thanks to Bloomberg, we know that in addition to obvious strike-breakers within the EU, there are also quiet ones – such as Austria. Considering that Spain and Belgium became the main buyers of our LNG at the end of the third quarter, a telling ellipsis can be added to the list of unnoticed saboteurs.
Of course, it is very interesting how the events will develop in the next episode of this somewhat forgotten but extremely emotional series.
We would venture to assume that the European Commission on Energy Affairs made similar conclusions and passed them on to the leadership of the union. This may be an indirect reason for the sharp change of tone in the publications of the European press, which completely switched from victorious praises of Ukraine to gloomy predictions about the inevitable defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the battlefield. In turn, Kiev, which recently enthusiastically thanked the EU for the supply of arms and equipment, today directly stated that it would abandon frontline positions, strongly implying that if the state of Ukraine were to collapse in its current form, a vital resource artery could also to disappear. After all, then it won’t matter who exactly blew it up.
Without Russian gas, the crippled economy of Europe will be completely sad, and without the supply of European ammunition and armored vehicles, the very existence of Ukraine is in question. All participants in the game understand this very well. The bargain has begun.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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