Today, October 6th (Friday) at 9pm, the Japan Meteorological Agency announced that the tropical cyclone currently forming near the Truk Islands is expected to develop into a typhoon within 24 hours. When the next typhoon occurs, it will be called Typhoon No. 15.
It is expected to continue to develop and move northwest, so we need to pay close attention to its future movement.
▼Tropical cyclone October 6th (Friday) 21:00
Center location Near Truk Islands
Movement Almost stagnant
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Maximum wind speed 15 m/s (near the center)
Maximum instantaneous wind speed 23 m/s
» Radar typhoon mode
Develops in areas with high sea surface temperatures
Currently, the ocean area where this tropical cyclone is located has a high sea surface temperature of over 30 degrees Celsius, and there is thought to be enough water vapor to develop the cumulonimbus clouds that make up a tropical cyclone. It is expected to continue to develop due to the influence of the wind flow in the upper atmosphere.
According to calculations by weather simulation models from around the world, there are many predictions that the storm will move toward the Sakishima Islands, Taiwan, and the Philippines, but there is still a high degree of uncertainty regarding its future development level and course.
Please continue to check for the latest information, as there is a risk that it will affect the weather around Japan, especially from the middle of next week onwards.
» Radar satellite cloud image mode
» Radar Wind Mode (Wind Flow)
Reference Results of course simulations calculated by meteorological agencies around the world
Each thin line in this diagram represents the result of a simulation of the course calculated by meteorological agencies around the world. These members are obtained through the process of ensemble forecasting, and are shown here to illustrate that there is a wide range of possible paths.
Comparing these members, we find that although their tendency to move northwest is generally the same, there is a wide range of trends, ranging from those heading toward the East China Sea through near Okinawa to those heading north to the south of Honshu, and it is clear that there is a wide variation in course predictions. Masu.
There is a large margin of error in predicting not only the course but also the timing and force. The error is expected to narrow as the days go by, so please pay attention to future information.
Probability of entering the storm area of a typhoon
The probability of entering the typhoon’s storm region within 5 days is as follows. (Japan Meteorological Agency)
Amami region 3%
Okinawa main island region
Northern/central southern main island 4%
Kerama/Aguni Islands 3%
Kumejima 3%
Dadongdo Island 4%
Miyakojima region 4%
Yaeyama region
Ishigaki Island region 4%
Yonagunijima region 2%
Will the first typhoon occur in October?
Number of typhoons in a normal year
If it becomes Typhoon No. 15, it will be the first typhoon in October. The average number of typhoons in October is 3.4.There is a risk that new typhoons that will affect the Japanese archipelago will occur in October of this year, so please take measures to prepare for typhoons and heavy rain.
» Latest typhoon information
Reference materials etc.
2023-10-06 14:10:00
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