As of 3:00 PM on Tuesday, October 10th, Typhoon No. 15 (Bolaven), a large and powerful typhoon, is moving west-northwest across the Mariana Islands.
It is expected to further develop and move northward, and the impact of high waves and strong winds is expected to increase in the Ogasawara Islands from the 12th (Thursday) to the 14th (Saturday).
▼Typhoon No.15 October 10th (Tuesday) 15:00
Center location Mariana Islands
Size class large
strength class strong
Move northwest west 20 km/h
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed 35 m/s (near the center)
Maximum instantaneous wind speed 50 m/s
» Latest typhoon information
Winds are gradually getting stronger in the Ogasawara Islands and high waves are occurring on the sea.
Wind forecast for Thursday the 12th
Typhoon No. 15 is expected to further develop and become extremely powerful by the 12th (Thursday). It is expected to reach its peak on the 13th (Friday) when it reaches the waters near Ogasawara, and the central pressure is expected to drop to 925 hPa.Although it will pass some distance from the Ogasawara Islands, its strong force means there is a high possibility that the effects of high waves and strong winds will be significant. Please be careful of stormy weather in the Ogasawara Islands.
After that, it is expected to gradually change its course to the northeast and move quickly towards the far east of Japan, with little chance of it approaching Honshu.
» Radar Wind Mode (Wind Flow)
Reference Results of course simulations calculated by meteorological agencies around the world
Each thin line in this diagram represents the result of a simulation of the course calculated by meteorological agencies around the world. These members are obtained through the process of ensemble forecasting, and are shown here to give you an idea of the wide range of possible paths.
Comparing these members, it can be seen that after moving northwest near the Mariana Islands, they tend to turn around near Ogasawara and move northeast, and the variation in course predictions is relatively small.
Although the error is small, we must not be complacent, as even the slightest deviation can greatly change the impact on the Ogasawara Islands.
Probability of entering the storm area of a typhoon
The following are the prefectural forecast areas where the probability of entering the typhoon’s storm region within the next 5 days is 3% or higher. (Japan Meteorological Agency)
Amami region 24%
Okinawa main island region
Northern/central southern main island 27%
Kerama/Aguni Islands 29%
Kumejima 27%
Dadongdo Island 9%
Miyakojima region 23%
Yaeyama region
Ishigaki Island region 18%
Yonagunijima region 11%
First typhoon in October
This is the first typhoon in about a week since Typhoon Koinu, which formed at the end of September and was moving westward in the South China Sea. This is the first typhoon to occur in October.
The average number of typhoons in October is 3.4, which tends to be less than in the summer, but September to October is a time when many typhoons approach and land in the Honshu area, so we cannot be complacent.
It is possible that typhoons that will affect the Japanese archipelago will occur in the future, so please do not relax your measures against typhoons and heavy rain.
» Radar satellite cloud image mode
typhoon name
There are 140 typhoon names proposed by member countries of the international organization “Typhoon Commission,” and they are assigned in the order of their occurrence.
The name of Typhoon No. 15, Bolaven, was proposed by Laos and is taken from the name of a plateau in southern Laos.
» Radar typhoon mode
Reference materials etc.
2023-10-10 08:31:00
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