A few hours before the polls open for the municipal elections in Turkey, the focus is on the battle of Istanbul, where the current mayor Ekrem Imamoglu and the chosen one of President Erdogan, Murat Kurum, are competing.
It is widely believed that this is a duel between Erdogan and Imamoglu.
The latest polls showed a slight opening in favor of Imamoglu over Erdogan’s pick Murat Kurum, but the battle remains lopsided.
Erdogan has taken the burden of the election campaign personally. Only in the last 48 hours until today at 6:00 pm, when the ban on pre-election activities began, he organized six pre-election rallies, all in Istanbul. The same is done by his ministers who “plowed” Istanbul in the last week, which however led to the obscurity of Murat Kurum, who is not particularly charismatic anyway.
Let’s join hands, heart to heart, and bring Istanbul together with qualified staff. Let’s disperse the dark clouds over this beloved city together.
Thank you Güngören, thank you Istanbul! 🇹🇷 pic.twitter.com/r8p8VABpKq
— Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (@RTErdogan) March 30, 2024
In a final move to impress the Islamist base of the electorate, just hours before the polls opened, Erdogan, accompanied by Kurum, prayed Saturday night at the Hagia Sophia.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and People’s Alliance Istanbul Municipality Mayoral Candidate Murat Kurum were welcomed with takbir sounds at the Hagia Sophia Mosque.
I hope God does not embarrass me pic.twitter.com/7qYO9JHvTP
— 🇹🇷 Mavi Vatan (@Patrie_Bleue) March 30, 2024
The outcome of Sunday’s municipal elections may further strengthen President Erdogan’s control over the political system. However, in the event that he does not manage to take back the municipality of Istanbul, the political scene in Turkey changes and the way is opened for the current mayor Ekrem Imamoglu to become the undisputed leader of the opposition – if the internal strife in the Republican People’s Party to which he belongs allows it. .
Imamoglu has the entire government apparatus against him, as well as the opposition parties, which is entering these elections fragmented.
On the last day of the pre-election campaign today, Ekrem Imamoglu appealed to the voters of all the parties of the fragmented opposition to come to the polls with a supra-party attitude for a “strong alliance of the people and conscience”.
Of decisive importance for Imamoglu is the vote of the Kurdish voters of the newly formed party DEM, which, although it does not officially support him, but “turned a blind eye” to him, putting down a weak candidacy in Istanbul. The current mayor draws a significant percentage from the “reservoir” of Kurdish voters, but not everyone in the party agrees on whether they should support the DEM candidates or support Imamoglu.
The pressure exerted just before the polls on the small Islamist party of Fatih Erbakan, the son of a former prime minister, which is gathering the protest vote of Erdoğan’s dissatisfied voters, mainly pensioners who bend under the weight of punctuality, but also Islamists, is unbearable who, despite Erdogan’s harsh rhetoric against Israel over the war in Gaza, accuse him of continuing and even increasing trade with Israel. The 3% he is estimated to get could deprive Kurum of victory.
Güngören Rally
— Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (@RTErdogan) March 30, 2024
The capital Ankara was also lost by the ruling AKP in the 2019 elections to the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and Mansur Yavas who will retain it in tomorrow’s elections, according to opinion polls. The mayor of Ankara enjoys acceptance in the nationalist and conservative part of the electorate. Some polls even predict that it can reach 60%.
Izmir, the country’s third largest city, is traditionally a stronghold of the Kemalists, and remains beyond the reach of the AKP, despite the deterioration of the Republican People’s Party, due to internal conflict at the local level.
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