– I hesitate a bit to speculate about what is going on behind closed doors, says Turkey expert about the diplomatic rift between Turkey and Norway.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attracted a lot of attention when he declared ten ambassadors this weekend as “persona non grata”.
Erdogan said on Saturday that he had ordered his foreign minister to declare ten ambassadors in Ankara, among them the Norwegian and the other Nordic, undesirable. The reason is that in a letter they have requested that the activist and philanthropist Osman Kavala be released.
Two days later, the Turkish Foreign Ministry has still not carried out Erdogan’s order to expel the ambassadors from Norway, the United States, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Canada and New Zealand.
The Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs informs Nettavisen on Monday morning that they have not yet heard anything official from the Turkish authorities regarding the deportation.
– The Turkish Foreign Ministry has better expertise than Erdogan
Turkey expert says it is difficult to say whether Erdogan has changed his mind or whether he still has plans to carry out the deportation.
– I hesitate a bit to speculate about what is going on behind closed doors. That kind of analysis of what Erdogan thinks and does behind closed doors is of little value. But the Turkish Foreign Ministry probably has better competence than Erdogan to understand the long-term consequences of such a symbolic act, says associate professor of Turkey studies at the University of Oslo, Einar Wigen, to Nettavisen.
– Diplomacy is largely about symbolic actions, about who sits where around the table and who gets to speak first and foremost. Diplomacy is performative. The expulsion of an ambassador is one of the most powerful diplomatic means of signaling dissatisfaction and unfriendliness. Erdogan has made foreign policy a domestic policy tool. It is very often that small conflicts with other countries are made bigger than they actually are, in order to score domestic political points, says Wigen.
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– Erdogan and the ruling party are struggling a lot with legitimacy and popularity these days, and this is hardly the last sensational act that presents itself before Christmas. This is purely opportunistic. Something is happening in the world, he also throws himself into it to gas up a little. It is not given in advance what opportunity will present itself, says Wigen.
– How do you think relations between Turkey and these ten countries will be affected by the threat of deportation, Wigen?
– If these ten countries pursue a long-term and sensible foreign policy, they will be able to see that there is something beyond and after Erdogan, and that they will not throw relations on the boat due to one leader’s somewhat short-term action. I think they see that there is no great interest in inflating this. While Erdogan, for his part, wants to inflate this conflict to divert attention away from the fact that people in Turkey can not afford the gas and electricity bills, he says.
Silent from Turkish Foreign Ministry
The online newspaper has repeatedly tried to talk to the Turkish Foreign Ministry on Monday morning. However, the telephone call is either diverted to a “call center” for consular questions or ended when Nettavisen asks to speak to a spokesperson for the Turkish Foreign Ministry.
On Sunday, Sweden, Denmark or Finland had not heard anything official from Turkey either.
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Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin regrets Erdogan’s order, and Denmark’s Foreign Minister Jesper Kofod says they have not heard anything, and that Denmark in any case “stands guard over our common values and principles”, as they are expressed in the letter.
– We consider it important that the decisions of the European Court of Human Rights are respected, and have therefore requested that he be released, Marin says about Erdogan’s order.
Acquitted and arrested
Kavala has been imprisoned without a sentence since 2017 for allegedly being involved in the protests in Gezi Park in Istanbul in 2013. He was acquitted last year, but arrested again immediately.
Kavala has been portrayed as a symbol of Erdogan’s growing intolerance of critics. International observers and human rights activists have repeatedly called for Turkey to release Kavala and Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtas. The latter has been imprisoned since 2016, and critics believe they are both imprisoned for political reasons.
Turkey denies this, insisting that the judiciary is independent.
Joint statement
I without statement Ambassadors point to a ruling by the European Court of Human Rights which has accused Turkey of violating the human rights convention by keeping Kavala imprisoned.
– We ask Turkey to ensure that he is released immediately, the statement from the ambassadors to the USA, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Canada and New Zealand states.
They further write that the case against Kavala “casts a shadow over respect for democracy, the rule of law and openness in the Turkish judiciary”.
– Indecent
Erdogan accuses the ambassadors of “obscenity”.
– They must know and understand Turkey. They must leave here the day they no longer know Turkey, the president said on Saturday.
“I have asked our Foreign Minister to declare these ten ambassadors for personae non gratae as soon as possible,” he said at a rally in Eskisehir in western Turkey on Saturday.
– We do not want to speculate in further reactions from the Turkish authorities. Our ambassador has not done anything that provides grounds for deportation, writes communications director Trude Måseide in an email to NTB on Saturday.
She assures that Norway will continue to urge Turkey to comply with its human rights obligations.
Economic crisis
Erdogan’s order comes at the end of a turbulent week for Turkey. On Thursday, the country was placed on the gray list of the global money laundering authority FATF for shortcomings in the fight against money laundering and terrorist financing.
At the same time, the exchange rate has continued to fall for fear of economic mismanagement and due to the risk of hyperinflation, which has a strong impact on support for Erdogan.
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