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The National Hurricane Center could issue tropical storm watches and warnings later Thursday for Florida residents as the disturbance is expected to develop off the Yucatan Peninsula.
Putting hurricane models at odds with each other, the disturbance, which is the remnants of Hurricane Agatha from the Pacific Ocean, has an 80% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm in the next two to five days, but its future fate remains uncertain, the NHC said in its 8 a.m. update. If the storm reforms with winds of at least 39 mph, it will become Tropical Storm Alex and become the first named system of the Atlantic season.
[ MAPA: Aquí está la última pista pronosticada del potencial sistema tropical que amenaza a Florida ]
On Monday, Agatha, the first storm of the Pacific hurricane season that began on May 15, strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane and made landfall in Puerto Angel, Mexico. The storm dissipated on Tuesday over the rugged Mexican terrain, but not before killing at least 10 people and another 20 missing, according to the governor of the southern state of Oaxaca.
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The NHC believes it will likely reform by the weekend.
The storm-disturbed area is near the Yucatan Peninsula and in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The system’s progress slowed Thursday morning, but NHC hurricane specialists are warning Floridians to keep their guard up as the sunshine state remains an area of concern for the system’s future.
As for what exactly will become of Central Florida, the models disagree with each other.
“It’s the difference between two major models,” said Bryan Karrick, a meteorologist for Spectrum News 13.
The European storm model shows the slower-moving Gulf disturbance that brought heavy rain to Florida on Saturday and cooler temperatures, Karrick said. However, the US GFS model shows the system moving much faster with less rain on Saturday and much higher temperatures.
Forecasters hope to get a better idea of where the disturbance is likely to travel after observing it more in the Gulf and seeing a few more runs of the storm model.
On Monday, Hurricane Agatha made history as the strongest hurricane ever recorded to make landfall in May during the eastern Pacific hurricane season, ripping off roofs and flattening roads before disappearing in southern Mexico on Tuesday.
Oaxaca state governor Alejandro Murat told MVS Noticias on Tuesday that eight people were listed as missing due to landslides or flooding.
The storm hit Oaxaca state Monday afternoon as a strong Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, then rapidly lost strength as it moved inland over the mountainous interior.
Meanwhile, the acreage across 200 miles northeast of the central Bahamas has decreased, the NHC said in its 8 a.m. update.
Last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its predictions for the hurricane season, indicating a 65% chance of experiencing an above-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2022, beginning June 1 and running through June 30. of November.
This story was published in the Orlando Sentinel by journalist Joe Mario Pedersen. Orlando Sentinel reporters Lisa Maria Garza, Richard Tribou and The Associated Press contributed to this story.
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