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The NFL season is upon us, and with it comes planning for our fantasy football teams. At this time of year we are looking for the best players that can lead us to victory.
There are some names that can be found in the upper echelons of the Runnin Back and Wide Receiver rankings, but again this year there are some red flags that should make fantasy managers stay away from these names, despite their potentially reduced ADP (Average Draft Position).
To spare you the frustration that comes with a disappointing Fantasy Draft, here are this year’s top bust contenders.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
Betting against Derrick Henry has been a risky move in the past, but like any gambler, even an exceptional talent like Henry will eventually face the age cliff. Ryan Heath von Fantasy Points recently conducted a detailed analysis of age curves in the NFL and found that running backs in their eighth season (like Henry) tend to experience the first major drop in their fantasy stats, falling to 73.1% of their career average.
The situation surrounding Henry doesn’t exactly help either. The Titans’ offensive line is widely regarded as one of the worst in the league and has ranked last among blocking units on Pro Football Focus for the past few months.
That may be partly to blame for Henry’s declining performances. Bill Barnwell von ESPN notes that the Titans’ superstar hasn’t been the same unstoppable force lately:
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Despite staying healthy last season, Henry has continued to lose efficiency. Between 2019 and 2020, he rushed for 685 rushing yards above expected value (RYOE), but over the past two seasons combined, he’s down to 114.
The 29-year-old’s yards per carry are down a full yard, from 5.4 in 2020 to 4.3 and 4.4 in subsequent seasons. He also recorded a personal “best” with six fumbles in 2022.
In April, the Titans selected Tyjae Spears as a possible heir to the throne from Henry in the third round. The rookie probably won’t take over Henry’s role just yet, but he could take a few touches per game from him, more than other backup running backs at the Titans have. Offensive coordinator Tim Kelly has said the team will give Spears as much playing time as he can handle, which could also come in the form of passing-down snaps.
All in all, as long as Henry stays healthy, Henry still has an opportunity to make solid numbers as an RB1 in Fantasy Football. However, given his age, mileage history and the situation on the offensive line, it could well be that this season we will see the unimaginable and classify him more as a Fantasy RB2.
Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks
In his rookie season, Walker showed impressive highlight runs and promised great potential. However, he was also a boom-or-bust player who had a limited role in the passing game. In the last seven games, he has only managed to place in the top 12 once. Because of that, the Seahawks acted proactively and secured themselves with Zach Charbonnet, another promising running back.
Foto: IMAGO / USA TODAY Network
Charbonnet could jeopardize Walker’s passing goals and goal-line touches, making him more of a competitor. The team seems intent on expanding backfield options and potentially pursuing a more balanced attacking bias.
However, it’s important to note that Walker’s talent is still there and he has every chance to develop further and play a significant role in the upcoming season. The competition in the backfield is sure to get more intense, but that could mean the Seahawks have a more dynamic and versatile attack that will bring new challenges to opponents.
Ultimately, the question will be how well Walker can develop and adapt in the offseason to hone his skills across all facets of the game. If he can expand his passing role and continue to show off his explosive runs, he could play a key role in the Seahawks’ running attack.
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Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans
Pierce put in solid performances in a weak team last season, but a lack of strong competition in the backfield was certainly part of the reason. The Houston Texans made up for that deficiency in the offseason by signing two talented running backs — former Bills starter Devin Singletary and the often-searched for on fantasy waiver wires, Mike Boone.
With the signing of Singletary and Boone, the Texans now have a much deeper and more diverse running back group that can and will lose Pierce playing time. Singletary in particular has the potential to receive more touches than any other running back on the team.
Singletary has prior experience as a starter in the NFL and has demonstrated his ability to be effective as both a runner and passing game. He can run between tackles as well as being a pass receiver, giving him a variety of opportunities to get involved on offense. This makes him a versatile and valuable asset for the team.
Also, Mike Boone is a talented running back who has shown his skills in the past, particularly as a stand-in for injured starters. He’s an explosive runner with great potential and will certainly fight for game time as well.
Given the depth in the Texans’ backfield, Pierce will definitely have to fight for his place and may not receive the same volume of touches as last year.
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
Williams suffered a serious knee injury in October that affected both the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) and lateral collateral ligament (LCL). Such injuries typically require a longer recovery time and can pose a challenge to returning to top form. Many injury analysts have compared Williams’ situation to that of JK Dobbins last year, who also suffered an ACL tear and only recovered to form late in the season.
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Foto: IMAGO / Icon Sportswire
Williams expresses optimism about his return and hopes to be back on the field in Week 1. But it’s important to note that every injury and recovery is individual and there’s no guarantee he’ll be ready in time for the start of the season. As with Dobbins, it’s possible Williams will need some time to fully recover and get back into the rhythm of the game.
Fantasy managers should therefore be careful and keep a close eye on the situation. It’s advisable to follow reports on Williams’ progress and participation in training throughout the summer to better gauge if and when he’ll be back on the pitch.
It’s all too familiar to many fantasy managers – the frustration that comes with a disappointing fantasy draft. While it’s impossible to predict all of the vagaries of the NFL season, certain factors may indicate that some players have an increased bust potential. Here are some top bust contenders for this year.
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
The question of whether Deebo Samuel should be selected as a third-round pick and WR18 in fantasy drafts is entirely valid. While Samuel is undoubtedly a talented player, his fantasy numbers have been inconsistent over the past few years.
Foto: IMAGO / Icon Sportswire
In the 2021 season, Samuel put in impressive performances with both receiving and rushing yards and touchdowns. However, the San Francisco 49ers roster for the upcoming season suggests he won’t get as many chances as he did last season. With the return of Christian McCaffrey and other offensive stars, Samuel could have to share his production load.
Another factor to consider is the strong performance of Brandon Aiyuk, who is also a promising fantasy option and could be available later in the draft. Aiyuk has shown he can score more fantasy points per game than Samuel and is drafted later.
Maintaining good stats in fantasy drafts is important, and while Samuel is a solid player, it might be worth forgoing him and waiting for Aiyuk for a better performance-to-draft position ratio. Ultimately, however, it depends on the fantasy manager’s strategy and preferences.
Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers
While Christian Watson may have put in an impressive performance late last season, a number of factors could affect his fantasy prospects. In particular, the deterioration in quarterback position and the influx of contenders could reduce his production chances.
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Foto: IMAGO / Icon Sportswire
With a new quarterback who may not be as well established as his predecessor, Watson and the QB could initially struggle to work together. Additionally, rookies Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave could also come into focus and compete for balls with Watson.
Additionally, it is reported that Romeo Doubs is a preferred option for new quarterback Jordan Love, meaning Watson may not receive as many passes as he did last season.
Given these possible factors, picking Watson as a top 40 fantasy pick could be risky, especially if he’s trading as a WR20.
Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals
Marquise Brown may have benefited from DeAndre Hopkins’ departure, but he’s still a long way from being considered a proven No. 1 option. While he’s talented, he’s only rushed for 800 yards in just one of his four NFL seasons, indicating some inconsistency.
Also of concern is that Brown was sidelined with a foot injury during the OTAs. Foot injuries can be tedious and could affect his availability and productivity next season. It’s particularly worrying given that he missed time last season with a foot problem.
Additionally, Brown will be without quarterback Kyler Murray for part of the season as he recovers from a torn cruciate ligament. A missing or battered quarterback can negatively impact a wide receiver’s performance, as chemistry between them is important to be effective.
With all of these uncertainties and challenges, it’s important to accurately assess Brown’s fantasy value and carefully consider his risks before selecting him in your fantasy drafts.
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JuJu Smith-Schuster, New England Patriots
Injuries have undoubtedly hampered JuJu Smith-Schuster’s effectiveness in recent years, and it’s clear he’s not the same player he was in his first two successful seasons with the Steelers. The fact that he’s only scored double-digit fantasy points in six games in the last year despite playing with a top-notch quarterback like Patrick Mahomes is definitely a bad sign.
The protracted knee injury that kept him out of action during the OTAs is also of concern. Knee injuries can be complicated and may require a slow return to full capacity. This could affect his availability and ability to dominate the pitch.
Given all of these factors, it’s uncertain how well he will recover from his injuries and if he’ll be able to regain his former form and productivity.
2023-07-25 16:19:56
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