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With the’third pandemic’ of a new coronavirus infection in Korea (Corona 19) entering a modest decline, the trend of new confirmed cases this week is paying attention.
This is because it is possible to gauge the trend of continuing decline in new confirmed cases or re-proliferation.
Until the end of last month, the number of new confirmed cases, which had occurred around 1,000 a day, has recently decreased to 600, but has fallen to the mid-400 level on the 11th.
When looking at statistics alone, it is observed that it is entering a definite decline or stabilization phase.
However, the common opinion of infectious disease experts is that it is too early to be optimistic, as the number of new confirmed cases has decreased to 400, which has also affected the decrease in the number of tests on weekends and holidays.
The quarantine authorities are also calling for continued cooperation from individual citizens, saying that there are too many risk factors to relieve tension.
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◇ Today, around 500 are expected in the late 400s… The possibility of increasing again from tomorrow due to the weekly flow
According to the Central Defense Countermeasure Headquarters (Bangdaebon) on the 12th, the number of new confirmed cases at 0 o’clock the previous day was counted as 451.
On the last 8-10 days (674, 641, 664), while maintaining 600 people for three days in a row, it skipped 500 and went down to 400.
The 400 new confirmed cases are 41 days after the 1st of last month (451), just before the spread of the 3rd pandemic intensified in earnest.
The number of new confirmed cases to be announced at 0 o’clock on this day will increase slightly from the previous day, but in a large frame, it is expected to be on the extension of the trend of decline.
The number of new confirmed cases was interim counted by the quarantine authorities and local governments such as Seoul from 0 o’clock to 6 o’clock the previous day.
There were 106 more than 316 who were counted at the same time the day before.
However, since the increase has not been large, the number of new confirmed patients is expected to reach around 500 from the late 400 level.
Looking at the situation for the last week (1.5-11), the decline is clear.
During this period, the number of new confirmed cases per day was 714 → 838 → 869 → 674 → 641 → 664 → 451, an average of 693 cases per day. Among them, the number of confirmed cases of regional outbreaks, which is a key indicator of the adjustment of the distance stage, fell to an average of 655.4 per day, completely out of the 3rd stage standard (over 800 to 1,000 people nationwide).
However, it is not possible to conclude a’definite decline’ with these numbers alone.
Looking at the pattern of weekly patient incidence so far, the number of confirmed cases decreased from the middle of the week to the beginning of the week through weekends and holidays and increased again.
Sohn Young-rae, head of the Social Strategy Division, Central Accident Control Headquarters, said in a back briefing on the previous day, “(Weekends and holidays) the number of confirmed cases is somewhat low until Monday and Tuesday, but tends to be high on Wednesdays, Thursdays, and Fridays. There is” he explained.
In fact, the number of inspections on weekends and holidays was 33,848 and 28,222, respectively, which was significantly lower than 50,000 to 60,000 on weekdays.
Jung Eun-kyung, head of the Bangdae Headquarters, also predicted that “the number of confirmed cases is predicted to be in the range of 600 to 700 a day next week,” suggesting that the size of the infection may increase to some extent.
Lee Jae-gap, professor of infectious medicine at Hallym University, said, “We cannot rule out the effect of a large decrease in the number of specimens due to the cold on weekends.” “Rather than evaluating, we have to wait and see the future trends. There is a possibility that the number of embroidery will increase again,” he predicted.
◇ Authorities “We need to reduce the outbreak by the end of the week…Please follow the quarantine rules”
In this situation, the quarantine authorities cited four types of’risk factors’ that could trigger the re-proliferation of epidemics, including latent infection in local communities, outbreaks in vulnerable facilities, mutant viruses, and winter.
First of all, as of the previous day, the percentage of confirmed patients who did not confirm the path of infection for the last one week reached 24%, and it was found that the’hidden source of infection’ is still widely established in the local community. Even now, it can be seen that the infection chain continues somewhere.
Also, in the case of nursing hospitals and nursing facilities, there is a tendency to spread on a large scale when even one confirmed person comes out, but the spark of infection is still not extinguished at these facilities.
Although the quarantine authorities have greatly strengthened preemptive inspections for these facilities, it is unclear when and where a new group infection will erupt.
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One of the big variables is the mutant virus, which is spreading beyond the UK and around the world. While 16 mutant virus infections have been confirmed in Korea so far, there are no cases of regional transmission yet, but if it does, it is likely to spread rapidly given its 1.7 times stronger transmission power.
The seasonal factor of winter, when the viral activity becomes active, is also a risk factor to be aware of until the end.
“In order to further reduce the scale of the 3rd epidemic, everyone’s attention and participation is necessary,” said Jung, head of the headquarters. Asked.
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