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imago
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1.8
Thomas Kemmerich wants to give up his premiership.
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FDP party leader Christian Lindner had forced him to do so.
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The election of Kemmerich had sparked outrage across Germany.
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AFP
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7.8
Björn Höcke could emerge as a brilliant winner from new elections.
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An expert government would also be possible in Thuringia – the role model would be the government of Brigitte Bierlein after the Ibiza affair.
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Thomas Kemmerich (54) is the 24-hour man. “The resignation is inevitable”, The prime minister, elected with the votes of the right-wing populist AfD, had to concede after just one day,
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What’s next in Thuringia after the AfD coup? VIEW explains the five possible scenarios:
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1. New elections
The FDP wants to apply for new elections. An application would have to be approved by at least one third of the Thuringian deputies – the FDP itself has only 5 of the 30 required. After that, it becomes even more difficult: In order for elections to actually take place, at least two thirds of the deputies would have to apply (60 out of 90) voices.
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But the Thuringian CDU (21 votes) rebelled against party leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (57). The parliamentary group headed by Mike Mohring (48) has spoken out against new elections. The FDP, SPD, Greens and Leftists together have only 47 votes. So the FDP might have to hope for votes from the right: The AfD has 22 members of parliament.
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2. Question of trust
If he doesn’t get a two-thirds majority for new elections, Kemmerich wants to ask the question of trust. If he loses her, a new prime minister must be elected within three weeks – otherwise there will be new elections. And that within 70 days.
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No matter which of the two options leads to new elections: there is great concern that new elections will strengthen the AfD. Already from the state election in October they emerged as the second strongest force. After the FDP and CDU did not do well in the election bang surrounding Prime Minister Thomas Kemmerich, the political margins could be further strengthened. Conservative CDU and FDP voters, who clearly oppose the left, could vote in new AfD elections.
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3rd vote of no confidence
Even before Kemmerich’s resignation, the left, the SPD and the Greens were considering a vote of no confidence. A parliamentary group or at least a fifth of the deputies could submit a motion of no confidence against Kemmerich. All that is required is to put the vote of no confidence in accordance with Article 73 on the agenda.
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A vote of no confidence would require an opposing candidate to Kemmerich. The Thuringian state constitution states: “The state parliament can only express distrust to the prime minister by choosing a successor with the majority of its members.”
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If the CDU abstains, red-red-green, who have already negotiated a coalition agreement, could replace Kemmerich with the previous incumbent Bodo Ramelow (left).
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4. Expert government
Another solution: FDP politician Thomas Kemmerich could lead an expert government. This is supported, for example, by the Union of Values, an association of conservative Christian Democrats. Value Union leader Alexander Mitsch (53): “Maybe a non-partisan.” New elections would not solve the problem, but would strengthen the political margins.
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There is a prominent example of this in Austria: Here, the independent Brigitte Bierlein (70) led such an expert government after the Ibiza affair from June 2019 to January 2020,
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5. Minority government
A minority government could exist after a constructive vote of no confidence with red-red-green. However, a minority government under Thomas Kemmerich is still not entirely off the table.
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The SPD and Greens have given him a rejection, but the CDU in Thuringia could still agree. It has spoken out against the wish of the federal CDU under party leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer against new elections and wants to first look for a “political solution”. Together, however, the two parties would have only 26 votes and would have to laboriously look for new majorities in every political project.
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