Three Surprises of War. What was unexpected for Putin and the Ukrainians themselves

Every war brings surprises, but in Putin’s war against Ukraine – and indirectly against the entire democratic West – the striking thing is that for Putin there are only bad surprises, but for Ukraine there are also good ones.

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Well, how is it? I am sure that when Putin was planning this war, he assumed that in three weeks he would already deliver a victory speech in the Ukrainian parliament, welcoming the return of Ukraine to the bosom of mother Russia. He probably also assumed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would be in exile in Poland, Russian troops would still collect flowers thrown by Ukrainians on their tanks as a sign of greeting, and Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping would shake hands – they say, we showed NATO and Sleepy Joe who should set the rules of the international system.

Instead, the Ukrainians taught the Russians a lesson in how to fight and die for freedom and self-determination. Putin found himself isolated in his own germ-free cell, probably afraid of a bullet from any Russian officer. Zelensky addressed the US Congress. And instead of ending globalization, people around the world are using global networks to monitor and influence war in completely unexpected ways. They send money to support Ukrainians in a few clicks and in the same way they tell everyone from McDonald’s to Goldman Sachs that until Russian soldiers leave Ukraine they should not do business in Russia.

Here is another surprise that few people could have foreseen, especially China and Russia. China has relied on its own vaccines to fight COVID-19, along with a zero tolerance and immediate quarantine policy to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. Alas, Chinese vaccines seem to be less effective than all the others. And because China’s quarantine strategy resulted in the population not developing immunity from previous strains, the virus is now spreading like wildfire. As The Times recently reported: “Tens of millions in Chinese provinces and cities, including Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, are in isolation amid the outbreak of the omicron strain. Travel between cities is banned, production lines have been shut down, and shopping malls have been closed.”

Since Putin started this war, he will stop at nothing

And what of it? And the fact that it kills demand and lowers the price of crude oil, which has reached $130 a barrel due to the war in Ukraine, dropped below $100. And what country desperately needs high oil prices because it can sell little to the world to finance its war? Putin’s Russia. Thus, China’s COVID strategy is hindering Putin’s oil price strategy – seemingly hurting him as much as anything the US is doing. We are all still more connected than we ever imagined.

Now that we have passed the initial stage of this war, surprises continue to appear. The three biggest surprises for me that this war has revealed are a special cruelty and, in contrast, extraordinary manifestations of courage and kindness.

I never had any illusions: since Putin started this war, he will stop at nothing for the sake of the title «winner.” However, it is shocking how quickly he tied his own hands. Within three weeks, Putin went from declaring that the goal of the invasion was to liberate Ukraine from its “Nazi” leadership and return Kyiv to its natural Russian environment to to the destruction of Ukrainian cities and the chaotic shelling of civilians in order to break their resistance to his will.

This kind of vicious insanity inherent only in a rejected lover or «honor killing.” And when such madness manifests itself in the leader of a superpower with about 6,000 nuclear warheads, it is shocking and overwhelming. The behavior of this man portends even more sinister surprises.

The courage that seemingly ordinary people show in war has always amazed me.. In this case, not only Ukrainians, but also Russians who refuse to buy into Putin’s lies, knowing that he is turning their country into a pariah. I take my breath away from the courage shown Marina Ovsyannikova, an employee of the Russian state First TV channel, which broke into the live broadcast shouting: “Stop the war!” and held a poster behind the back of the news presenter with the inscription: “Here you are being lied to!”. She was interrogated and released for a while, probably due to Putin’s fears that she would be made a martyr.

Extraordinary good deeds are done during wars. In this war, unexpected good deeds were shown through the Airbnb accommodation booking service. Airbnb management says that in early March they saw users began to use their platform in a completely new way.

In the past two weeks alone, according to the company, people from 165 countries have booked more than 430,000 nights to stay in Ukraine with no intention of using it, only to donate money to Ukrainians, most of whom they have never even heard of. Airbnb has temporarily waived all host and guest booking fees in Ukraine, which has turned into $17 million going directly to landlords. Most of the bookings come from the USA, Great Britain and Canada, while Australia, Germany and several other European countries close the top ten.

In addition, as of Sunday, March 13, about 36,000 people from 160 countries have registered through Airbnb’s non-profit subsidiary Airbnb.org to host refugees from Ukraine.

Even the American giant, the Agency for International Development, USAID, cannot achieve such coverage.

Many Ukrainians who received these donations through booking responded to their benefactors. Thus, new friendships are forged, which allows foreigners to understand much more deeply the impact of this war. This creates a community of kindness that, while not able to defeat Putin’s tanks on its own, can help support those determined to resist them by reminding them that they are not alone – Putin is alone.

I’m not at all surprised by this. I have always argued that globalization is not only trade. It is also the ability of countries, companies and now increasingly individuals to connect and act globally. People cannot live without communication, and modern technologies make it easier and more accessible.

Yes, the war presents both pleasant surprises for some and unpleasant surprises for others – those people who are responsible for this war. It’s only the beginning. But let’s not forget that this is still a war, and, unfortunately, unpleasant surprises (and for everyone) there is always more in it.

Translation NV

NV has the exclusive right to translation and publication of Thomas Friedman’s columns. Republishing the full version of the text is prohibited.

Original

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