A new phase of the operation is underway in eastern Ukraine, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Tuesday last week, according to the news agency Reuters.
Already the day before, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj declared that the Battle of the Donbas was underwayand that large parts of the Russian army participated in the offensive that intends to take control of the region.
On Friday, Russian Major General Rustam Minnekayev accused Moldova of oppressing the Russian people in the Russian-backed Moldovan breakaway republic of Transnistrialocated along the border with Ukraine.
The Russian State News Agency Tass wrote the same day that Russia plans to create a land corridor through Ukraine to Transnistria.
– Let us assume that the attempt to take Kyiv and parts of eastern Ukraine was phase one, and that the offensive against Donbas is phase two, says Lieutenant Colonel Geir Hågen Karlsen at the Norwegian Defense College to Dagbladet.
Understood in this way, the Russians are only just beginning phase two, he emphasizes.
– For the time being, it seems that they concentrate most on the eastern part of the Donbas, around Shevjerodonetsk and Kramatorsk. As of now, they have succeeded in advancing a little – with pressure a little – some places.
Putin rhetoric: “This is a simple war”
– Dynamic battle
However, the Russians have been met with fierce Ukrainian counterattacks.
– It is a dynamic battle on the ground, and it is too early to say how this will go, says Karlsen – and also points out that Ukraine’s air defense has succeeded in limiting Russian air superiority in the area.
The next step of phase two will naturally be to take the rest of the Donbas area.
– In short, they are very far from taking Donbas, and it is still very unclear how this goes. Before the second phase is over, it also remains to end in Mariupol. So it is a long time before they have secured what we believe is the main goal of this phase: the Donbas and the mainland from Russia to Crimea.
If the Russians are to move towards Transnistria, they must first take Mykolaiv and Odesa.
– They are not close to taking Mykolajiv at the moment. They tried on the outskirts a few weeks ago, but were beaten back.
– Survived well torture
Expert: Two possibilities
Arne Bård Dalhaug is a retired lieutenant general and former chief of the Defense Staff. He believes that the war, simply explained, can go in two main directions after the now launched offensive against Donbas:
- Either the Russians move towards Transnistria, with the aim of establishing a land corridor from the Donbas.
- Alternatively, they may put all the offensives on the shelf – and take a longer “break” before they possibly choose to move on.
One thing he is quite sure of: the Russians cannot go against Transnistria and the Donbas at the same time. At the moment, everything indicates that Donbas is the first priority, Dalhaug explains.
But they probably have the plans ready, he thinks.
– It makes sense to try to create a land corridor towards Transnistria in the long run: You link up with the breakaway republic, you completely cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea, and Odesa remains south of the land corridor. If they do not have the capacity for this, I would assume that they will not do much else either.
sea view
–
– Big problems
The big variable, Dalhaug believes, is how hard Russia will get in the Donbas in the coming time.
– If they suffer heavy losses, the question is whether they have enough people and material to start a new strategic direction. It will be very resource-intensive, and they will have to reckon with great resistance.
An offensive in the direction of Transnistria is then not possible in the near future, he believes.
– But say they take the Donbas and make a land corridor to the Crimea. Then they can set aside one or two years to consolidate, train forces and build up the capacity needed to take the next step towards Moldova. In the meantime, there will be periods of greater or lesser fighting around these areas.
However, the planning of the Transnistria corridor has taken a heavy toll on the bow, he emphasizes: the lowering of the Russian warship «Moscow». It can have major consequences for any operations in southern Ukraine, he believes.
– To make a landing in the Odesa area is an extremely risky operation. The beaches are fortified by the Ukrainians. The boats that would be involved in such an operation will be extremely vulnerable. I have no faith in that.
To establish the corridor to Transnistria, the Russians must travel from Mykolaiv to Moldova. Transverse road and water systems make such an operation very challenging – but not impossible, Dalhaug believes.
– As of now, I can not see that they have the strength to implement it. They are already having great difficulty in making any particular progress in the Donbas.
It will take at least a month before the Russians have to start taking a stand on these issues, the retired lieutenant general believes.
– If they do not have the capacity to go towards Transnistria, it is a realistic end scenario that after a realistic assessment they must accept that they are left with the Donbas and the land corridor to the Crimea. Then they will have expanded the illegal occupation that they started in 2014 with a new contact line, which runs along Donbas’ outer borders.
UD: – Negative for Norway
– Diversionary maneuver
Karlsen partly agrees with Dalhaug:
– We must remember that they gave up Kyiv and northern areas because they did not have enough forces. Then it becomes very imaginative to think that they will suddenly deploy forces in the south, before they have taken Donbas and Mariupol. It is completely unlikely that they will put in place a land corridor to Transnistria in the near future, he says.
However, he has a theory as to why Russia is already rattling the saber in these areas:
– I believe that the statements about agriculture to Transnistria are a Russian diversionary maneuver, with the aim of getting the Ukrainians to tie up forces in Mykolaiv and Odesa, so that the Russians get less resistance in the Donbas.
Recently, the Russians have directed a number of minor attacks on areas between Mykolaiv and Kherson.
– Probably it is simply just to keep the threat at bay, and strengthen the diversionary maneuver.
sea view
–
– More opportunities
If the Russians succeed in the Donbas, and are left with resources available for further offensives, they will have more options for a possible third phase, Karlsen believes.
– They can take Mykolajiv and Odesa and go towards Transnistria. But they can also focus on moving north, to take Dnipro and larger parts of eastern Ukraine – or try to target Kharkiv or other major cities in the east. What is most relevant – if they get there – I think it is too early to say.
In any case, this assessment is far in the future, the lieutenant colonel emphasizes. Nor does he rule out Dalhaug’s “break scenario”.
– Then they can stop, declare a form of victory and use it as a platform to build up militarily.
He emphasizes that there is great uncertainty associated with these scenarios.
– It is not certain that we will reach phase three at all, at least not in the form we are discussing now. It can look completely different. The Russians may be repulsed. A prolonged freezing of the conflict where it now stands is also a completely realistic alternative.
Zelensky: Shameful order
– Back to start
A lot can happen during the coming month. But regardless of the outcome of the Battle of the Donbas, the Russian forces will probably have to return home to lick their wounds for several months.
This is the opinion of Lieutenant Colonel Palle Ydstebø at the War School.
– Given the forces the Russians now have in Ukraine, and their fighting power, it seems doubtful that they can achieve anything special even in the Donbas. If they then manage to take over the entire region, they will probably incur such large losses that they almost have to move back to the start and build up large parts of the army again, in order to be able to move on at all, he tells Dagbladet.
Russia’s withdrawal to the north earlier this month has released large numbers of forces that have now been diverted to the Donbas.
– Still, we still see only a lot of small attacks. They have had minimal progress, and in addition they have lost ground in some areas. So as I see it, Donbas is stomping.
The TV pictures shake: – Extreme
– Not impressive
Ydstebø is skeptical of the statements from Major General Minnekajev – and supports Karlsen’s theory that it may be a diversionary maneuver.
– Keeping up with the facts on the ground is not realistic for a long time. In order to have a chance at all to get west, they must first take the Donbas, reduce the Ukrainian army so much that it is unable to offer further resistance, and then rebuild forces.
It will at best be a month before a picture begins to form of whether the Russians will achieve what they want in the Donbas, the lieutenant colonel believes.
– It is difficult to read the real fighting power of the Russians, but what they have shown so far in this so-called battle for the Donbas, has not been particularly impressive.
– Trying to fool the enemy
Must go home anyway
The Transnistria corridor – or other offensive advances in the future – will not be feasible until long after the Battle of the Donbas – hardly during the next six months – Ydstebø believes.
– With the strengths they have now, and the wear and tear they have taken so far in the war – and will continue to take if they are to be able to take large parts of the Donbas, or just keep what they have now – they do not have the capacity for it until they has almost built new forces. It will take a quarter – maybe longer, if they have to bring in contract soldiers, train them, and so on.
So regardless of the outcome in Donbas, the third phase will be characterized by withdrawal and regrouping?
– Yes, anyway – unless they are completely repulsed by Ukraine. In that case, the Russians will still have to withdraw – but then with even worse opportunities to strike back later.
–
