The loss of two transport planes shows a Russian invasion that is lame and unable to coordinate as well as in the first 24 hours, according to an expert.
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On Thursday, Russia invaded neighboring Ukraine in an offensive they had been able to plan for a long time.
But after three days of fighting, the situation has changed.
The British Ministry of Defense said on Saturday that the offensive has slowed down due to logistical problems and fierce resistance.
– When they had to start improvising, Friday and Saturday, the efficiency of the Russians has decreased, says military adviser Per Erik Solli, who until recently was defense attaché for Norway in The Hague in the Netherlands.
In the first 24 hours, Russia traveled far into the country, from the north, south and east:
- In the south, Russian forces withdrew from the occupied Crimean peninsula, in some places without encountering resistance at the border crossings, according to surveillance camera footage. In a short time they had penetrated 130 kilometers north, to the river Dnipro and the city of Kherson.
- In the east, several villages that Ukraine had recaptured from the separatists in the Donbas since 2014 were occupied by Russian forces. Russia also reached the outskirts of Kharkiv, the country’s second largest city.
- In the north, the Russians moved quickly near Kyiv, among other things through a large-scale attack with helicopters and airborne forces at the airport near the suburb of Hostomel.
1 out of 5Photo: ANATOLII STEPANOV / AFP
The video below shows clashes during the Russian helicopter attack on Hostomel:
But then several things have happened that put the Russian strike force in a different light:
- On the outskirts of Kharkiv, Kherson and Kyiv, a number of clashes have been reported, and none of the cities have so far fallen.
- Photos and videos show Russian vehicles that have stopped running out of fuel.
– Russia is known for having problems with logistics, although I think it has improved since the modernization that has taken place since 2010. But it is a very large operation, and Ukraine is a large country, says chief researcher Tor Bukkvoll at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment
- The attacks on two airports around Kyiv were first repulsed. On Saturday, there is uncertainty about who controls the airports and whether they can still be used.
- And in two different places south of Kyiv, planes of the type Ilyushin il-76 were shot down.
Ilyushin Il-76 are huge transport aircraft with similar tasks as, for example, the smaller Norwegian Hercules aircraft.
The loss of the transport aircraft is “a military tactical blister” and can be seen as an example of the Russian departments not coordinating well enough, Solli argues.
– One should never fly in this type of aircraft without having superiority in the air. One must first remove the threat from enemy aircraft and air defense, he says.
Solli himself has a background as a fighter pilot.
–US spokesmen have confirmed the shooting down of the two transport planes opposite the news agency AP.
Ukrainian intelligence says the planes were filled with landing forces, but this has not been confirmed elsewhere.
If the planes were filled with soldiers, it would “be a hard blow”, according to Solli.
–Whether the specific episodes, and developments in recent days, will have an impact on the outcome of the invasion, it is impossible to say for sure at this time.
Russia has far superior strengths in terms of equipment and number.
As of Friday, Russia had also sent in only about half of the tactical battles that were gathering along the border with Ukraine, according to The Economist, which refers to spokesmen for Western authorities.
But if Ukraine manages to maintain “high defense will and morale, it means as much as defense equipment”, Solli argues.
– It may also seem as if the Ukrainians let them in on purpose and did not meet them at the border. I think that was a wise move. You let the enemy go into the depths, become more vulnerable, and strike when they have stretched their lines, says Solli.
Bukkvoll at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment argues that the development over the last 24 hours can also only be a short break before a new, larger Russian offensive.
– On parts of the front line there is a little break, because the Russians bring in reinforcements. And they must supply the forces. It is too early to say that the Russian offensive has stopped.
Pictures from CNN on Saturday show rocket launchers with thermobaric bombs on their way across the border, one of Russia’s most brutal weapons.
Thermobaic bombs use the air around them to create longer explosions than traditional explosives – and are extremely effective against forces located in fortifications such as trenches, bunkers and armored vehicles.
Lieutenant Colonel Palle Ydstebø believes that the Russians initially tried to advance quickly by vehicle.
He teaches military strategy at the War School.
Less progress than expected may mean that they are now returning to what has been their more traditional military doctrine: overwhelming artillery bombardment.
– I think the break is used to prepare for a classic breakthrough operation, where you roughly shoot the defenders to shreds with artillery, and then push through several axes, says Ydstebø.
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