Many comparisons have already been made between the Spanish fluwhich raged over 100 years ago, and the current corona pandemic.
The flu epidemic that broke out in 1918 lasted about two years, and that is often taken as a realistic estimate of how long the world will remain in the grip of the virus this time around.
But two years have now passed, and the coronavirus is not yet ready to leave.
It is therefore not the same virus, and moreover, the world will look very different in 2022. That is why there are roughly two schools of thought within science: there are researchers who think the finish line is in sight, but others suspect that we will continue to suffer from COVID-19 for generations to come.
Stream 1: The pandemic is almost over
By far the most scientists to think that SARS-CoV-2 will never go away. The turning point will be when the virus can be considered endemic and continue to circulate without great risk.
And according to several experts, the time has come in 2022.
—
We have to anticipate a new wave in 2022, but then the corona pandemic will be largely over and we can return to life as we knew it. estimate.
This is possible because the omikron variant is more contagious, but causes fewer symptoms – as was mentioned earlier in the pandemic predicted.
Future outbreaks of omikron may lead to high numbers of infections, but without overburdening healthcare. And so the variant will occupy a place among the other endemic respiratory viruses.
Previous outbreaks of coronaviruses, such as TGEV, which struck pigs in 1946, went out on their own when milder variants emerged.
—
Stream 2: The pandemic will rage for generations to come
At the other end are researchers who argue that omikron is by no means the last variant of SARS-CoV-2. And while omikron usually provides a milder gradient, there is no guarantee that future variants will behave the same.
The pessimistic researchers believe that infections will remain high due to new variants and that vulnerable elderly people in particular will need extra protection in the form of vaccines and restrictive measures.
beside warns including the World Health Organization WHO that with the current sky-high infection rates we are far from being out of the danger zone.
It is only when several generations are exposed to SARS-CoV-2 from an early age that the disease will become endemic, and that will take decades† Until then, the disease will continue to make many victims, just like malaria, for example.
—
The pessimists point out that it is becoming increasingly difficult to make contagion models and that they therefore say less and less.
At the beginning of the pandemic, the entire world population was susceptible to SARS-CoV-2. If part of a country’s population was infected and the reproduction rate (approximately how many people infected each sick person) was known, the spread could be easily calculated.
But now that there are new variants and immunity is fragmented, the calculations are more difficult to make and can be used for a few weeks at most.
According to an model the transition to an endemic disease can take ‘a few years to a few decades’, depending on the fluctuations in reproduction.
But about one thing Most scientists agree: All past pandemics have ended at some point, and the coronavirus pandemic will be no exception.
—
