With the return of the United States to the Asia-Pacific region and its high-profile involvement in Taiwan and South China Sea affairs, the regional struggle with China has become increasingly fierce. The US think tank warned that the risk of a serious crisis between China and the United States due to the Taiwan issue has been raised to the highest level 1, which is similar to the possibility of military conflicts on the Korean Peninsula and between the United States and Iran; Level 2.
The US think tank Association for Foreign Relations (CFR) released the 2021 version of the Preventive Priorities Survey. The report has been published since 2008. Foreign policy experts listed 30 potential crises or conflict factors around the world and evaluated them The probability of occurrence in the next year and the impact on American interests.
This year’s report believes that North Korea’s continued development of nuclear weapons, test-launching of ballistic missiles, and increased military tensions on the Korean Peninsula are the number one concern among the first-level risks with a high probability of occurrence this year and a serious impact on US interests. The conflict between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait, after being first listed in the report in 2019, was classified as the second level for two consecutive years. The confrontation between China and the United States has intensified. China has increased pressure on Taiwan at the political and economic level, which has led to a serious crisis between China and the United States. The risk is raised to level 1, and it is expected to have a medium probability of occurrence this year and cause a serious impact on US interests.
In addition, the armed confrontation between the United States and Iran, the intervention of Russia or the intimidation of NATO (NATO) member states and the increase in military tension are also included in the same level. However, the eruption of the military confrontation between China and the United States in the South China Sea was reduced from level 1 to level 2. This was the only event in which the report listed potential crises or conflict factors. Paul B. Stares, director of the Center for Preventive Action (CPA) of the Association for Foreign Relations, pointed out that the incoming Biden administration must pay attention to many potential international conflicts, especially when it is focused on controlling the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
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