A referendum will be held in Switzerland on Sunday 27 September to decide whether to maintain or renegotiate an agreement with the European Union which provides for the free movement of European citizens in Switzerland, in force since 2002. The question is just one of the five that will be posed – the other four relate to things like school fees and wolf protection – but it is by far the most discussed, also because if successful it will have potentially unpredictable consequences, which go far beyond migratory flows. “The relationship between the European Union and Switzerland would be pulverized”, he said the political scientist Stefanie Walter a NPR.
The referendum was proposed by the Democratic Union of the Center – the right-wing party that controls the largest number of seats on the National Council, the Swiss lower house – which for many years has insisted on the need to impose quotas for European citizens who choose to live and work in Switzerland. «Migrants change our culture. Squares, trains and streets become less safe: in addition, half of the beneficiaries of the welfare are foreigners ”, reads the website of the electoral committee for Yes.
Since the free movement of people between the European Union and Switzerland was approved, the Swiss population has also increased thanks to the arrival of around one million migrants. Of these, around 750,000 come from European states. More than 450,000 Swiss, on the other hand, regularly reside in other European countries.
Supporters of the No – including the Federal Council, i.e. the government, and Parliament – argue that free movement has also had positive effects for the Swiss, and that limiting it would be a mistake and a potential damage for Swiss companies. more competitive, for example those in the pharmaceutical sector (which every year attract many skilled workers from other parts of Europe).
But in the event of a Yes victory, the possible damage to the Swiss economy could be much greater. The treaty regulating free movement with the EU is linked to six other treaties negotiated in 2000 and approved by a large majority in a referendum. The treaties in question are known as Bilateral I and regulate various aspects of the relationship with the European Union, from agriculture to transport through research and trade. All seven treaties have a so-called “guillotine clause”: if even one is unilaterally abrogated, the others lapse.
The victory of the Yes, therefore, would dismantle the agreements that at the moment allow Switzerland to access the European common market and to effectively have an open border system with neighboring states. It would be a huge problem for a country that exports almost half of its goods to the European Union, from which more than 60 percent of imports come.
If the Swiss decide to abolish the free movement of people with the European Union, the Federal Council would have one year to negotiate it. During that time, political scientist Sean Mueller points out on the London School of Economics blog, the European Union could unilaterally decide to suspend other treaties with Switzerland to put further pressure on it during the negotiations, such as those of Schengen – of which Switzerland it’s part, while not joining the EU – or the Erasmus + university exchange program.
The European Union, however, “believes that Switzerland already has one of the best possible agreements for a country outside the Union, and is not willing to yield on many fronts, especially during the Brexit negotiations,” explains Walter.
At the moment, the polls give a clear advantage to the No: according to a recent survey quote yes Reuters, 63% of the people contacted support the No, while only 35% would be in favor of the abolition of the free movement of persons.
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