– Then you will miss Putin

In an article published on November 15 in the independent Russian “exile newspaper”. Jellyfishdescribes how the oligarch and self-proclaimed founder of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is at the center of a change of pace in Russian politics.

– The situation in the country is moving in the direction that power can be seized by the use of force, the newspaper quotes Russian political analyst Ivan Preobrazhensky, and suggests that Prigozhin may be ready for a potential coup.

– Then you will soon miss Putin, Russia expert Jakub Godzimirski tells Dagbladet.

“Putin’s Chef”

Prigozhin has long been considered one of Putin’s closest associates. He is known as “Putin’s chef” because his restaurants and catering companies have often hosted Putin dinners with foreign heads of state and government.

Prigozhin has become an increasingly well-known figure, both in Russia and internationally, mainly due to his harsh criticism of those he holds responsible for Russia’s poor performance in Ukraine.

Tracks the new Russian revolution

According to Washington Post.

Prigozhin’s willingness to express dissatisfaction with the Russian elite was also used by British author, historian and journalist Owen Matthews as an example of “formation of cracks in the vertical of Putin’s power”.

– The main threat to Putin’s power comes not from the streets, but from within the regime, writes Matthews.

That is why he is the most dangerous of Putin

Towards the elites

In Meduza’s article, it is described how “Putin’s chef” may occupy a niche within political Russia as heir to the constituencies formerly represented by ultranationalist politician Vladimir Zhirinovsky.

– A source close to the administration believes that Prigozhin’s policy is a “niche project, calibrated for the ultra-patriotic majority which, at the same time, does not fully support the regime and criticizes the elite, the bureaucracy and the business sector”, writes the newspaper.

The article refers to a number of statements by Prigozhin that seem tailor-made to please this section of the Russian population.

– No mobilization of the elites took place. The oligarchs and other representatives of the elite have always lived in infinite comfort and continue to do so. Before their sons go to war, the country will not be fully mobilized, Prigozhin newspaper quotes.

– he shouted at Putin

Through this and other quotes, it is emphasized that Prigozhin actively opposes other members of the Russian elite, apparently in an attempt to strengthen his own political power.

This in itself is not necessarily something Putin and his government perceive as a threat, but it could be if further events call for regime change.

So Prigozhin might be in a good position to seize power, the paper suggests, and writes:

– Ivan Preobrazhensky is skeptical of Prigozhin’s chances of a major electoral success – but also believes that this is not necessarily necessary. “The situation in the country is moving in the direction where power can be seized through the use of force.”

– Not something that can be excluded

Norwegian Foreign Policy Institute (NUPI) researcher Jakub Godzimirski has more than 20 years of experience in Russian politics.

He tells Dagbladet that he doubts a Prigozhin-led coup is particularly likely, but that it cannot be ruled out.

– It’s not something that can be completely ruled out. We’ve seen many things both in Russia and elsewhere in the world that we didn’t think could happen, but why should he invest in challenging Putin when he benefits so well from the relationship he has with Putin? the researcher rhetorically asks.

If boss Wagner harbored such an ambition, he would still lack the resources, Godzimirski believes.

– My understanding of the situation is that Prigozhin has many resources – money, people and power – but he is still small compared to the real power elite.

– It can undermine Putin’s appeal

He also believes that one should be careful not to interpret Prigozhin’s criticisms too strongly.

– Three or four rumors have appeared in recent months that Putin should do more. Prigozhin is one of them, but criticism is directed not at the boss himself, but at his subordinates. Members of the General Staff, some generals and responsible for what is happening in parts of Ukraine, says Godzimirski.

– Then you will soon miss Putin

However, Prigozhin’s maneuver opens up potential problems for Putin, if it contributes to destabilizing the country’s power structure.

– Prigozhin and others like him, their attempts to make their way into the power structure can lead to unintended consequences. When you have a system like that, made up of many elements and you start tapping into it, you can quickly discover the weaknesses. In the long run, it can cause the whole institution to fall apart.

For example, Godzimirski mentions how the recently deceased Mikhail Gorbachev, the last leader of the Soviet Union, his attempt to implement political reform led to the dissolution of the entire Soviet state.

The NUPI researcher also believes that people in the West should probably be happy that a Prigozhin coup is unlikely.

– Seen from the perspective of Oslo, Washington and Brussels, imagining Prigozhin as the supreme leader of a country with more than 6,000 nuclear weapons is probably a scary scenario. Then you will soon miss Putin as head of state.