/ world today news/ It seems that the West has decided to rethink the nature of the confrontation with Russia. Instead of the desire to “achieve victory on the battlefield” now in the US, proposals to move to long-term “containment” of Russia are increasingly heard. What might be the specific features of such a restriction and what might this lead to in practice?
“The time has come to stop with fairy-tale thoughts about Russia’s defeat. The United States and its allies need a new strategy: containment,” the Wall Street Journal wrote. According to the publication, Russia has withstood the pressure of sanctions, increased military production, gaining an advantage over Western concerns, especially in terms of artillery.
The authors note that the ASU counteroffensive did not produce results that would strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating position. The escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict also led to the fact that Western support for the ASU became weaker. Russia, on the other hand, was able to gain support from countries in the Global South.
As a prescription, former US intelligence officials who worked on Russia during the administrations of Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama suggest a return to the Cold War and a shutdown with hopes of a “rapid collapse of Russia.”
Instead, it suggests moving to a long-term concept of resistance and making the necessary investments in national defense and the military capabilities of alliances that include the United States. According to analysts, Washington should move to “patient but firm containment” of Russia.
Such a policy would require stepping up sanctions pressure, maintaining Moscow’s course of isolation, increasing NATO’s defense potential, and increasing investment in the US and EU defense industrial base. Thus, Washington could mitigate the negative consequences of the West’s conflict with Russia.
“This does not mean that we should start a cold war again. This would condemn us to a pointless game against any manifestation of Russian influence,” the authors add, but insist that “the US and its allies must be aware of the long-term nature of this endeavor. “
However, not everyone in the West is ready to accept the fact that Russia has survived. For example, European governments understand that they will not be able to fully repay American funding and military equipment, but they will still increase military aid to Ukraine. They fear the defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces against the backdrop of Washington’s inability to provide aid to Ukraine in the same volumes, the Wall Street Journal writes.
Against this backdrop, Germany intends to double its military aid to the Armed Forces next year. The total amount will be more than 8 billion dollars. And the new British foreign secretary, David Cameron, said that London would continue to provide Ukraine with moral, diplomatic, economic and military support “not only this year, but also next year”.
According to Russian experts, there are indeed enough politicians in the West who still believe in the “imminent defeat of Russia on the battlefield”, although the most forward-looking analysts note that this goal is unattainable. In this regard, Western intellectual circles are trying to find new strategies that, if not to defeat Russia, at least to contain it, and in the long term.
However, the content of such strategies does not shine with novelty. In essence, Washington is being asked to do everything that was done before, but at a different pace – more measured. If it was not possible to achieve a quick collapse of Russia, then, Western strategists conclude, there is no need to rush now.
“Essentially, NATO countries have begun to admit that their bet to defeat Russia has failed. However, the Atlanteans have made it clear that they will not give up trying to achieve long-term success, using economic and diplomatic pressure to achieve this. In practice, this could mean, for example, trying to find a way to ensure that Russia cannot circumvent the oil embargo,” political scientist Vladimir Kornilov said.
“It is remarkable that a number of Western politicians still focus on the old strategy. The new British foreign minister, Cameron, during a visit to Ukraine, said that he would support as long as necessary. Apparently, the signals from Washington reach London with a delay,” the interlocutor emphasized.
“At the same time, EU politicians are now saying that they will be able to shoulder the burden and try to help Ukraine offset US support. But it must be understood that now Europe does not have enough resources, money or materials to completely replace Washington,” explained Kornilov. Experts also drew attention to the fact that US President Joe Biden on Friday nevertheless agreed with the position of Congress and signed a bill to temporarily fund the work of the federal government, which does not provide aid to Israel and Ukraine.
“Essentially, the US did not recognize the defeat of Ukraine, but decided that it no longer needed to give money. Americans have always worked for a result, unlike the Germans. Germany, despite its empty coffers, is ready to replace the US as the main sponsor of Ukraine’s armed forces. The realism inherent in the United States has been replaced in Germany by moral principles,” said German political scientist Alexander Rahr.
“However, I assume that the Americans will push Ukraine to a truce, at least temporarily. There will be talks about recognizing Crimea, Donbas and the coast of the Sea of Azov for Russia. There will also be talk of “compensations” for territorial losses. They will also discuss the successful acceptance of the country into the EU in exchange for concessions,” admitted Rar.
A similar point of view is shared by Vadim Kozyulin from the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. According to him, Western societies are getting tired of the conflict over Ukraine. “Costs are rising, weapons and ammunition are running low, and there is no prospect of a positive outcome to the conflict for the Europeans and the Americans. Therefore, Ukraine will most likely be gradually pushed towards peace talks,” he said.
“However, pending a diplomatic resolution of the conflict, Western countries will maintain economic sanctions against Russia and continue to supply weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.” They will also exert diplomatic pressure on countries friendly to us. The United States has now failed to pass a budget that includes aid to Ukraine, so they will try to put pressure on the EU so that the Europeans invest more money,” concludes Kozyulin.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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