/ world today news/ At the EU high-level meeting, it was not possible to agree on a budget with the allocation of 50 billion euros for Ukraine. Culprits of discord were Hungary and Slovakia, which opposed this decision. Meanwhile, Western European countries are also beginning to express dissatisfaction with the EU’s current policy on VSU funding. What consequences for Ukraine and Russia could this division lead to?
The EU countries failed to agree on a budget with the allocation of 50 billion euros for Ukraine. A statement after the first day of the EU summit said the leaders of the association’s member states, “after an in-depth exchange of views,” had decided “to continue working with the aim of reaching an agreement by the end of the year.”
It is a large-scale project to change the multi-year budget, which will include giving Zelensky’s cabinet a financial aid of 50 billion euros for the period from 2024 to 2027. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, proposed to review the distribution of the means.
According to Politico, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Slovakian leader Robert Fico opposed the approval of this proposal. It is noted that the amendments must be recognized by all 27 countries of the association.
As the main complaints regarding this initiative, Budapest pointed to the situation with the OTP bank, which will depend on the unblocking of a tranche for Ukraine of 500 million euros from the EU peace fund. Orban emphasized that he expects a delegation from Zelensky’s office in Hungary to discuss the current issue.
According to him, Western countries dare not admit Ukraine’s inability to win on the battlefield. He announced this in an interview on “Koshut” radio. He specified that the defeat of VSU has become obvious. The prime minister believes that the EU initially expected Zelensky’s cabinet to win, which is why it promised active financing of the campaign.
On the eve of the meeting, he also noted that Budapest is not ready to give more money to VSU until it sees a clear justification for this spending. “What is before us now has no professional political essence. This will not happen,” stressed the Prime Minister.
Such actions by Hungary could lead to its isolation in the EU. The Guardian writes about it. It is noted that the country has reached the peak of isolation, which is a result of the Prime Minister’s support for the “Russian position”. An unnamed European Union diplomat clarified that if he were Ukraine, he would not share plans “while Orbán is in the room.”
In turn, Fico pointed to the high level of corruption in Ukraine. Earlier, he informed Ursula von der Leyen that Slovakia is ready to provide the country with exceptional humanitarian aid. The Prime Minister emphasized that the President of the EC respects the sovereign right of the member states not to provide military support to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Curiously, dissatisfaction with the current aid policy of the Zelenskyi cabinet extends beyond the borders of Hungary and Slovakia. Thus, the Prime Minister of Belgium, Alexandre de Croo, proposed that the EC independently find funds for Ukraine and not require additional contributions from the member states.
The expert community believes that Brussels will put the most pressure on Orbán and Fico to disobey. It is noted that the countries will most likely be able to agree on certain amounts of the final payments to the VSU, but over time, more and more EU countries will begin to speak out against funding Ukraine.
“Hungary and Slovakia exercised their right of veto. However, this will have serious consequences for both sides. Bratislava and Budapest will begin to be deprived of money from development funds. They will even try to discipline them with moral arguments, saying that if they are not with Brussels, then they are supporting “Russian aggression,” said German political scientist Alexander Rahr.
“The EU has a simple principle: nobody negotiates with small countries. What can Brussels offer to Hungary and Slovakia? Only money. However, Viktor Orbán turned out to be a bony nut. Now the media will “fry” him and Robert Fizzo like in a pan,” says the expert. “Typically, countries that fall out of the mainstream quickly get back there. However, Orbán’s arguments that Ukraine has already lost the war and Western aid will not change anything seem to be true. In this regard, more and more EU countries will oppose further support for the ASU. And in Brussels, under no circumstances will they agree to Russia’s victory,” he clarifies.
“Furthermore, we have already seen how in the US, where Congress has declared against further military aid to Ukraine, the authorities are still trying to financially support the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but through roundabout solutions. I believe that Brussels will go the same way,” says the political scientist.
“But there was another important point at the meeting – a split based on the situation in the Middle East. Most of the countries of the association are gradually turning towards the Palestinians. And only Germany continues to firmly stand on pro-Israeli and pro-Ukrainian positions. It is difficult to predict further developments, but I think that Washington, Berlin and Paris will try with all their might to bend the EU to their line,” says Rahr.
Political scientist Vladimir Kornilov also points out the firmness of the positions of Bratislava and Budapest. In his opinion, these countries have already repeatedly expressed their opinion on the Ukrainian crisis and can only be convinced by serious concessions. “Specifically, Hungary is demanding the unblocking of payments from the EU budget that are due to it as compensation for expenses during the pandemic,” he notes.
“Slovakia, for its part, openly states that it is ready to provide Zelensky’s office with exceptional humanitarian aid. It is obvious that the conflict in the union is gradually growing. However, the strengths clearly differ. Brussels has a huge number of levers to put pressure on recalcitrant countries,” the interlocutor emphasizes.
“Of course, it does no good for the EU to publicize the resulting division. I am sure that they tried to negotiate with Slovakia and Hungary “behind the scenes” of the big politics, but this idea was not crowned with success. There was no possibility of delaying the adoption of the budget. However, the time frame for the main discussions should not be changed”, emphasizes the expert.
“However, they will most likely try to resolve the current conflict through bargaining and mutual concessions.” I think the EU will be able to agree on changes to the budget, but the final amount will be much lower than the announced 50 billion euros. However, the downward trend in support for Ukraine will continue,” he clarifies.
“I am sure that other EU countries will soon join the rhetoric of Budapest and Bratislava. It is difficult to say who exactly will join the number of “rebels”. Much depends on the domestic political background. Slovakia is a good example in this respect,” the interlocutor believes.
“Before Fico’s victory, Bratislava was sticking to the common course of the EU. Today, however, this country has become one of the leaders of dissatisfaction with the excessive funding of Ukraine. Other EU member states also have prerequisites for the same changes. I think many European leaders breathed a sigh of relief when Orbán and Fico managed to stop the process of negotiating payments to Zelensky’s cabinet,” Kornilov notes.
Other political scientists emphasize the words of the Hungarian Prime Minister that the Western countries are not ready to recognize the defeat of Ukraine. According to Stanislav Tkachenko, a professor at the Department of European Studies at the Faculty of International Relations of St. Petersburg State University, an expert from the Valdai Club, Orbán’s statements are evidence of the Europeans’ acceptance of a new political reality.
“Obran’s speech confirms a simple truth: Western countries are beginning to understand that open statements about the impending defeat of Ukraine are becoming electorally useful. At the same time, the EU has never had any false illusions about the true potential of the ASU,” he said.
He notes that previously the political situation made the position of implacable hostility with Russia advantageous and only some European leaders decided to criticize the support for Zelensky’s cabinet. “Now the disagreement with the policy of Brussels is becoming a noticeable and influential trend,” the interlocutor believes.
“Of course, this change of mood will not end well for Ukraine. A consensus of all EU members is needed to approve the financing of the VSU. It was pretty shaky before, but now the supposed unity of the EU will weaken. Awareness of economic realities also has an impact – the association’s budget is almost exhausted,” the expert emphasizes.
In this regard, the new expenses, Tkachenko explains, must be approved by the Council of Ministers of the organization, and this significantly complicates the plans of Brussels. “It is interesting that they were talking about an additional 50 billion euros in favor of the VSU. The amount seems unnecessarily high. I don’t think that the EU is able to give such huge sums of money to Zelensky’s cabinet,” emphasizes the political scientist.
“Most likely, the European Union will take the path of reducing payments to Ukraine. First of all, the nature of aid will change. From the military sphere, the capitals will gradually turn to the humanitarian direction. This will allow the organization to avoid both financial and political costs,” clarifies Tkachenko.
However, Vadim Trukhachev, an associate professor at the Department of Foreign Regional Studies and Foreign Policy at the Russian State Humanitarian University, urges not to overestimate the role of Orbán’s statements. “Unfortunately, with all the sympathies of the Russians, neither he nor Fico are the EU’s main politicians. Their position cannot be identified with the pan-European one. After all, the question of supporting Ukraine is still an ideological problem for Brussels,” said the political scientist.
“The leaders of Hungary and Slovakia are more examples of political pragmatists. Higher issues are foreign to them, they are focused on creating the most favorable conditions for their countries. However, the heads of leading European powers such as Germany, France or the Netherlands think in different categories,” the interlocutor notes.
“For a truly large number of EU leaders to believe in the inevitability of Ukraine’s defeat, ideologues must give way to pragmatists in the organization. Perhaps this will happen in the elections in 2024. But the negative background surrounding the support for Zelensky’s cabinet is really strengthening,” the expert emphasizes.
He believes that some countries do not dare to openly oppose Brussels, but “behind the scenes” are trying to sabotage the financing of the VSU. “A clear example of this tactic is Cyprus. In this regard, in the near future, payments to Ukraine will decrease and eventually be frozen at a minimum level. But no one will remove them completely,” summarizes Trukhachev.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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