The wars in Ukraine – Alleged forced mobilization:

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Skeptical of large-scale mobilization

according to Ukrainian intelligence The Russians are planning the forced mobilization of Ukrainians in the occupied territories of the regions of Kherson and Zaporizhia, who will be sent into battle against their own.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claims that some form of forced mobilization is already under way in the two regions, as well as in Kharkiv.

The claims are not supported by independent sources.

– There is a high probability that this type of allegation is part of the Ukrainians’ influence operation. This does not rule out that there is a core of truth in it, says senior researcher Una Hakvåg at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment (FFI).

Hakvåg researches, among other things, Russian security and defense policy. She believes there is a limit to what the Russians will be able to use any forcibly mobilized Ukrainians for.

– One can imagine that by luring money or threats of violence or executions, they can get someone to work with security, sanitation or logistics in the occupied territories, she says, and emphasizes that Ukrainian authorities have been clear that people working for Russian authorities will be punished.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claims, among other things, that medical personnel in the city of Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region have been sent to the front, under duress, to provide first aid to wounded Russian soldiers.

The senior researcher is highly doubtful whether there are Ukrainians who will be willing to fight on the Russian side.

– To the extent that they exist, they are probably already mobilized a long time ago. But that someone might support an illegitimate regime is not inconceivable. We know from other wars that this is happening.

– Great resistance

Russia researcher Jakub M. Godzimirski at NUPI believes we can in no way rule out that Ukrainians will be forcibly incorporated into Russian ranks.

– Then the question is how much they trust any forcibly incorporated Ukrainians. During World War II, we saw that people who were forcibly incorporated into both Russian and German forces, fled to those they were to fight against at the first opportunity, Godzimirski says.

Major problems have been reported repeatedly in the Russian ranks, with a shortage of troops, poor equipment, dysfunctional leadership and subsequent problems with logistics and morale.

Incorporating more unmotivated soldiers, Hakvåg believes, sounds like an “unwise choice”.

– Changes the nature of the war

On the Crimean peninsula, which was annexed by Russia in 2014, Ukrainian conscripts are enlisted in the Russian defense.

According to the senior researcher, the population there has shown great opposition to the service of ordinary military service in Russia.

– They opposed it, precisely because they feared being used in battles against their own in Donetsk and Luhansk, she says.

– Can exchange civilians for soldiers

The situation in the newly occupied regions differs markedly from the situation both in Crimea and in the Donbas, Hakvåg emphasizes. A large proportion of the population most opposed to the war fled these areas long before the full-scale invasion began.

– In other areas, such as Kherson, we know that the opposition to the Russian occupation is very great, she says.

The southern city was the first to fall into Russian hands after the invasion began. Since then, frequent and large-scale anti-Russian demonstrations have been reported.

The senior researcher puts more trust in claims that Russian soldiers have gone from door to door in Kherson, and taken civilians as prisoners of war.

– It sounds more plausible. In this way, the Russians can try to exchange civilian Ukrainians for Russian soldiers.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyj has previously said he is willing to exchange Russian prisoners of war, in exchange for civilian prisoners in Mariupol.

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