The Ukrainian opposition was far tougher than expected for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Four months into the invasion of Ukraine, Russia is suffering heavy losses – and the great Russian victories have been missed.
However, Putin shows no signs of planning to withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine. For weeks, Putin’s forces have continued to carry out heavy attacks in the Donbas area.
Alerts tougher tone
“Cracks”
However, there are signs that the power of the Russian president is gradually weakening, says Lawrence Freedman, professor emeritus at the Department of War Studies at Kings College London.
“It is now widely believed in the West that he will not withdraw from the war with Ukraine, and if things go badly, he will attack. Such a man must not be provoked. Nevertheless, the gloss image begins to crack. Behind all the bragging, he loses his grip on power “, Freedman writes in one chronicle.
– Bet that the West gets bored
Freedman points in particular to recent developments in the war, as well as Putin’s speech at St. Petersburg’s International Economic Forum. The professor believes Putin’s claims of invincible Russian strength “were undermined by his speech was delayed for one hour by a computer attack».
“Although he boasted about how well the economy will withstand the storm, even official forecasts show that the economy will shrink this year by around 8 percent and unofficial estimates go as high as 15 percent,” writes Freedman.
sea view
–
Dissatisfied elite
The Russian elite should also not be particularly pleased that Putin started the war without their consultation, the professor believes.
Both British and American intelligence have reported on internal strife in the Russian power elite, and that Putin should have felt led behind the light of his inner circlewho for fear must have made fun of him about what is really happening in Ukraine.
– Enormous wear and tear
Ukrainian intelligence, for its part, has repeatedly claimed that the power elite around Putin is planning a coupand that the intelligence chief, Aleksandr Bortnikov, who has been close to Putin for a number of years, is a possible replacement.
Freedman believes that a coup is very unlikely, and writes that “no one among the elite has any idea how they can escape this or, even if they did, have the political courage and opportunity to counter Putin.”
