The rocket attack on an apartment block, leisure center and shopping center has dominated the news picture from Ukraine in recent days.
– What we see now is the same pattern we saw after Ukraine sank the cruiser «Moscow». They carry out revenge actions so that the victory does not taste too good for Ukraine, says Tom Røseth who is the head teacher of intelligence and head of the Ukraine program at the Norwegian Defense College.
VISIT: Here Jonas Gahr visits Støre Ukraine. sea view
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The Russians have on several occasions responded with rocket attacks just after they have suffered military defeats. After they had to withdraw from Slangeøya, there were several attacks on Ukraine.
– They want to mark strength and send a message to Ukraine and the international community that they can do as they please, says Røseth.
In retrospect, they deny having hit civilians, or intended to hit civilian targets.
He believes this is a strategy that works as good propaganda in the home country, and aims to create doubts that the war can be won in the Ukrainian population.
– The purpose of the rocket attacks is to create fear and terror against the civilian population in Ukraine. They are trying to convince the Ukrainians that they are facing a military superiority they cannot defeat. It is a strategy that rarely works, says Tom Røseth.
EXPERT: Associate professor and head teacher in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense College, Tom Røseth. Photo: The Armed Forces sea view
In previous conflicts, it has been seen that similar strategies can have the exact opposite effect where such attacks have had a unifying effect on the population.
Zelensky: Deliberate Russian terror
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj also criticizes the Russian attack on a block of flats and a leisure center in the port city of Serhiivka in the Odesa region.
– I emphasize: This was an attack that took place with intent, deliberate Russian terror, and not as a result of a mistake or a random rocket attack, Zelenskyj says.
At least 21 people were killed and about 40 injured, according to Ukrainian authorities.
TAKEN: A shopping mall in the city of Krementsjuk in central Ukraine is said to have been hit by Russian rockets. It must have been killed, according to the news agency AFP. Video: Telegram. sea view
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– Three rockets hit an ordinary residential building, a nine-storey building where no one had hidden weapons, military equipment or ammunition, contrary to Russian propaganda and Russian officials always claim in such attacks. It was a simple building with around 160 people. It was inhabited by ordinary people. Civil. The leisure center was also destroyed in this attack, a very typical facility in an area close to the sea, says Zelenskyj according to NTB.
Fear Belarus
Several Ukrainian media are constantly reporting fears that Belarus will become more involved in the war.
– This has been feared by the Ukrainian authorities ever since the war broke out in February. There has been a lot of activity in Belarus recently, and this is something Ukraine must include in its defense planning. They must have military forces available in northern Ukraine, says Tom Røseth.
I KYIV: Norway is increasing its support for Ukraine by NOK 10 billion over two years. The money will go to humanitarian aid, reconstruction of the country, weapons and operational support to the authorities. VIdeo: Marie Røssland / Dagbladet. sea view
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Belarus has made its territory available to Russian forces, which poses a real threat to Ukraine.
“False flag” operation
Although President Alexander Lukashenko has allowed Russian forces to operate from Belarus, Røseth does not believe he wants to be directly involved in the war.
– I do not think he will cross the border into Ukraine, but he may be pressured to do so by Vladimir Putin. Another possibility is that they are subjected to a “False Flag” operation which means that they are forced to react militarily, says Tom Røseth.
On Saturday, Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko said he would retaliate against Western capitals if Belarus was attacked.
“Do not touch us, and we will not touch you,” Lukashenko said in a speech on Saturday on Belarus’ Independence Day.
