Recent proposals for peace talks, both from Russia and Ukraine, cannot hide the bitter reality:
– Neither side was there any willingness to compromise, says lead researcher Tor Bukkvoll at the Norwegian Defense Research Institute (FFI).
On the contrary, the fronts have become steeper, after ten months have passed since Russia invaded the neighboring country.
Steep fronts
One reason is what has been discovered in liberated cities such as Butsha and Kherson.
DOES NOT QUOTE: Russian President Vladimir Putin has offered peace talks, but shows no willingness to reverse his demands on Ukraine. Photo: NTB Scanpix/Sputnik/Sergey Guneev/Pool via Reuters
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In Butsja lie down 400 civilians died again in the streetsand a mass grave with some 67 dead was found when the Russians gave up their attempt to capture the Ukrainian capital Kiev this spring.
In an interview with the AP news agency at Christmas, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba proposed a peace summit in February.
But before I want to talk directly to the Russians, the requirement is that Russia must be brought before a war crimes tribunal.
Such a thing cannot be accepted by President Vladimir Putin.
Massive missile attack
Impossible requests
And you TV interview this weekend Putin has said, as he has in the past, that he is willing to negotiate.
But then the minimum requirement is that Russia takes control of four Ukrainian counties – which of course Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will not accept.
Tor Bukkvoll explains that the parties continue to propose negotiations, while insisting on impossible requests:
– It is simply just to show that you are thinking of finding a solution, and that you are thinking of peace and not just war.
He believes that both Ukraine and Russia are under some pressure to at least show readiness for diplomatic solutions, from Western countries and from China and India, respectively.
Huge faucet
In recent months, Ukraine has gained the upper hand in the war, with large areas retaken to the east and south, most recently the city of Kherson, the only regional capital Russia had captured.
DEPENDING ON WEAPONS: Ukraine and its president Volodymyr Zelensky depend on Western weapons to win the war against Russia. Here Foreign Minister Anniken Huitfeldt (Ap) met him on a visit to Kiev in November. Photo: Kiur Kaasik / NTB
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Now the war has entered a phase of greater stalemate, in which the Russians are trying to compensate for their lack of war success with drones and rocket attacks on infrastructure in Ukrainian cities.
Several experts the New York Times spoke to believe this could go on for a very long time, despite the huge loss of life on both sides.
According to the newspaper, more than 100,000 Russian soldiers were wounded or killed so far at war.
– Decisive breakthrough
– Both sides are committed to the long term, says Karin von Hippel, director general of the military research institute Royal United Services Institute in London.
– Putin still believes he can win. He still has more men and more money, though one wonders what his tipping point will be, von Hippel tells the New York Times.
DESTRUCTION: The war in Ukraine has meant enormous destruction and suffering for both civilians and military. In this September photo, firefighters put out a blaze after a rocket attack in Bakhmut, Donetsk region. Photo: NTB Scanpix/Juan Barreto/AFP
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According to Tor Bukkvoll, there will be no negotiations until the war takes a decisive turn.
– There must be a decisive military development, to the advantage of one or the other side. One of them must think that “here we will have to respect the prescriptions, to avoid collapse”, he says.
– Nothing to give
For both sides, this is a long way off. Putin staked all of his prestige, and his future in power, on winning the war.
For the Ukrainians it is even more dramatic.
– For Ukraine, this is a question of territory and existence as a state. They have nothing to give. Either Russia must give up what she has taken, or she must be driven out, says Bukkvoll.
EXPERT: Tor Bukkvoll, Senior Researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Institute (FFI). Photo: Ole Berg-Rusten / NTB Scanpix
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The only thing it believes Ukraine can compromise on is the Russian-occupied peninsula of Crimea, where in a given situation, for example, it might find itself forced to accept some form of self-government.
That is why Bukkvoll still believes that the end of the war is a long way off.
– Dare to say
– It is possible that it will end within the next year, but it is not easy to predict. That’s also a bold thing to say, she says.
– Can this happen as early as March or April?
— No, no, no, says Bukkvoll, and refuses to be more specific than that.
– Unlikely
Decisive for the outcome, for Ukraine, will be access to Western weapons and ammunition. Because he says of the existence of the state, manpower and motivation are not a big deal.
However, it’s for Russians.
Bukkvoll assumes, however, that half of Russia’s 300,000 mobilized troops still in training can give Russia what it needs for a major offensive in the spring.
Three possibilities
In the long run, Bukkvoll sees three possibilities for war in Ukraine:
- That Ukraine wins
- May the Russians win
- Which continues as it has now, for years, with an ongoing war in eastern Ukraine.
According to Bukkvoll, only one of these – which Ukraine wins – gives lasting peace.
– If there is a Russian victory, the war turns into a guerrilla war. Then it will last indefinitely. Only a Ukrainian victory can bring lasting peace, Tor Bukkvoll tells Dagbladet.
The majority fears Putin
