According to one of the last statements of the President of Russia, the country steadily and “with minimum losses” goes pandemic coronavirus. According to him, although the problem is still there, but “smooth work” in this direction is evident.
“God grant, that and further was”, — said Vladimir Putin, expressing the hope that stable release of the pandemic continue.
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According to him, this can happen for two reasons. First, because of the development of collective immunity to which the virus has to adapt. Second, because of the hot weather, which contributes to enhancement of human immunity and reduce the incidence of airborne infections. But because mutations do not occur in RNA, and its protein receptor is, in turn, casts doubt on the effectiveness of vaccines created today.
“I wouldn’t bet on vaccination. Recently, the world health organization reported that the world’s 35 developed candidate vaccines. If the vaccine is prepared by protein receptors, then as soon as they change, the drug will cease to operate. Besides, any normal vaccine goes through stages of tests, which will take a year or two, and need to clearly focus on this period. So I would count on the natural immunity of the population” — suggested the Professor, while specifying that any pandemic, especially a pandemic lasts from one year to three years.
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Interestingly, the doctor of medical Sciences, Professor of Institute of epidemiology and Microbiology named Gamalei, a virologist Anatoly Altstein in an interview with “SP” recently acknowledged — although the “second wave” coronavirus infection is very likely, however, it is very likely that it will be easier.
— Most likely, it will just spread those options COVID-19, which are more suited to reproduce, but much less pathogenic — noted the expert.
So who’s the expert right, and to some variant of the “second wave” — hard or soft — you need to prepare the Russians?
Nowadays in medicine and biology, a lot of things possible, and what says Mikhail Alexandrovich [Пальцев]also can be, — said the academician RAEN, doctor of medical Sciences, Professor, specialist in epidemiology and preventive medicine, Igor Gundarov. In contrast to the Western school with its oncogeneticist approach, there is a broader view of the problem, which, in particular, and Soviet biology. Now, in the world represented as a complex ecological community in which the virus seemed a huge army, living and developing according to its own internal laws. Hence, it is permissible either in the displacement of one of the virus more aggressive “brothers”, or the mutation of the virus, again, in a more aggressive form.
“SP”: — That is the scenario outlined by academician Finger, it is possible?
— Theoretically, it is quite likely. And there immediately follows an important conclusion that the modern orientation of isolation and blockade against the people of course, good, but in the overall fight against infection occupying force by 30 percent. An important human immune system, but that’s just that almost nobody does.
As for vaccines, Mikhail Aleksandrovich [Пальцев]the largest specialist in this area, definitely all said. And the timing of its release, because doing it sooner than a year or two, I believe is criminal. And its inefficiency, because virologists have noted — protein component of the coronavirus on the basis of which vaccines are developed, mutates. According to recent information, the coronavirus is changed at a rate of two mutations per month, and it is possible that in the next few years we will be faced with a completely new serotypes that developed the vaccine did not obey.
“SP”: — it turns Out that speculations about a high degree of risk of the “second wave” COVID-19 is not a “children’s horror stories”?
— As for the question about the notorious waves, it is necessary to note one point. The coronavirus has made our community more closely examine this area, and my colleagues and found out for infections as many as three distinctive waves, with repeated from year to year in a particular sequence.
In order to delineate their boundaries, as a starting point you need to take not the calendar New year, but some other phenomenon.
So, if we take as the start of the summer solstice, June 22, it is clearly seen that the first wave of the disease will start around October. It is relatively small, but there is a sharp increase in mortality and a jump in the number of infected is in January, when it starts, in fact, the second wave. In February it is on the decline, and then suddenly in March the next jump, and this, as you know, there is already a third wave of infection.
So what to expect in October, the increased morbidity is not the “second wave” due to the fact that we are supposedly not isolated, and once the first wave of the new year. It is a natural cyclicity, which exists for centuries.
“SP”: — And still can with some certainty say that the coming of the October jump is the gravity and fatality rates more than March?
— The first thing to say is that the October wave with a high probability will still be small. When you do this, ask another question: who, in fact, said that the current wave of incidence was exactly “big”? Large waves were raised around coronavirus infection of panic. Great was the wave of the diagnostic tests, the bulk of which was inaccurate.
“SP”: — And what about the deaths from pneumonia?
“SP”: — So, someone is using the situation with the coronavirus in some personal purposes?
Nature flash of panic around coronavirus infection lies in the fact that in the presence of a huge number of social networking all of humanity in just one day you can easily make one collective brain and put him into a state of contagious emotions or ideas.
Now we are in a real pandemic of fear (here, by the way, I must say the coronavirus thanks for that it showed how our society of this unprotected). Initially, I believe it arose by chance, but then it was quickly joined by interested financial and political circles.
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