After a week of crisis, can we measure the consequences diplomatically?
France suffered diplomatic and commercial humiliation, which led to the recall of French ambassadors to Australia and the United States. But I think it probably won’t go further, it’s more symbolic. We could sever relations altogether, but it is unthinkable between such allied countries. In addition, this crisis has an international consequence with the risk of a possible nuclear proliferation. Indeed, even if it is only nuclear propulsion, it gives a tacit carte blanche to all those who want to sell products of the same nature to all the States of the region.
What can we envision for future relations between France and these two countries?
What is difficult is that the Americans are locking up France, which will no longer be part of the alliance that existed against China in this region of the Indo-Pacific. Indeed, there was a Franco-Australian strategic partnership with the principle of creating a three-pillar axis with France, Australia and India. An axis that will never be possible since the contract with these twelve submarines was its pillar. More broadly, this only reinforces what we already know: the United States will always satisfy its own interests. Whether in the economy or in politics in general, the French are only adjustment variables for the Americans.
Boris Johnson on Sunday underlined the importance of the relationship between the UK and France. Will there always be a partnership in the future?
It could be complicated. Everything that’s happened now, with this alliance, this split and this integration of the Anglo-Saxons together only supports Brexit in a way. We see that the commercial situation is very complicated. Now it is the Lancaster House agreements, on a strategic union between the United Kingdom and France in terms of defense, which will surely lapse.
Can France count on support from the European Union?
There were not many demonstrations of support. There may be very ad hoc diplomatic support, but it doesn’t go any further. From a general point of view, what can be noted, however, is that the European Union is a little more wary of its American ally. However, in reality it is still too divided to be able to take on a confrontation with the United States.
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