When it seemed that the incidence would come in a controlled way to Christmas, the variant arrived Omicron to change the plans of many countries. It was detected in South Africa and Botswana at first, and from there it was distributed to practically all the countries of the world in just a few weeks. This is, in fact, its main threat: a very high infectivity, more than previous ones like Delta.
On the other hand, the first studies suggest that the severity of disease from the Omicron variant tends to be milder than with other variants. A proof of this is the low level of mortality associated with it. And, in addition, there are already several experts who consider that with this variant the pandemic can be ended. The reason is that it looks more and more like a common respiratory virus and, furthermore, it is becoming prevalent in many countries.
The paradox is that it can come when many countries register their maximum contagions of the entire pandemic: Spain registered, for the first time, more than 100,000 positives in one day, while France doubled that number, exceeding 200,000 infections. With such a high transmission, some experts consider Ómicron as the ‘vaccine’ of the unvaccinated and, thus, the end of the pandemic.
Similar to the Spanish flu
Adolfo García Sastre, virologist at the Monte Sinaí hospitalRemember what happened in 1918 with the so-called Spanish flu. “It lasted between two and three years. There were no vaccines and people got immunity from infection. It was a very transmissible virus, practically everyone was infected, “he assures. After many people became infected, especially in the last year,” it was when the virus estarted behaving very much like the flu“, he points to The world.
This end of the Spanish flu more than a century ago has some resemblance to the current pandemic situation, with uncontrolled infections in many countries of the world. Now, in addition, there are two things that were not possible at that time: vaccines and a better diagnosis of the disease. “It seems closer that moment in which the contagions will no longer cause so much alarm because they will not generate the same proportion of hospitalizations. “
In this way, he assures, There will be no need to take extra measures like the ones we know: confinements, curfews or capacity restrictions. According to García Sastre, thanks to Ómicron “normality will return sooner. In countries with more resources and access to vaccines, such as Spain, it may happen from next summer“, he assures.
A ‘vaccine’ for the unvaccinated
The expert defends his theory by assuring that by then, between vaccinated and infected by this strong wave due to Ómicron, “immunized people will be so great that the virus becomes seasonal, similar to the flu, and that it does not cause the problems that it is creating right now. “
On the other hand, Miguel Ángel del Pozo, researcher at the National Center for Cardiovascular Research (CNIC), points out that “it is going to immunize people who have not been vaccinated. Its high transmissibility will contribute to group immunityThis, however, does not mean that it is not necessary to be vaccinated in the case of these people, you can infection can end up causing long-term problems.
The least gravity that, a priori, Omicron causes, is still a higher risk for those who have not received the vaccine. “It will cause many to become infected, but the cost can be great because a percentage of them will be hospitalized and, of these, some will die. It is a very high price to pay“That is how it happened, he recalls, in the 1918 flu: without vaccines, with natural immunity and a high cost in lives, about 50 million (almost ten times more than the current coronavirus pandemic, about 5.5 million as of today).
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