If the conflict in Ukraine is frozen, Russia will only need six years to prepare its army for war with the North Atlantic Alliance. This is stated in the analytical note of the German Society for Foreign Policy (DGAP).
The German Society for Foreign Policy published an analytical note, “Preventing the Next War,” in which it assessed the military threat from Russia and made some recommendations to NATO and Germany.
“The time it takes Russia to rebuild its military forces determines NATO’s need for speed. The alliance must be able to repel a Russian attack within six years. Longer terms already increase the risk of war. NATO strategies range from “Better safe than sorry” to “Fight with the army you have,” it says.
In connection with the intentions attributed to Russia, the authors recommend that Germany quickly increase the Bundeswehr in terms of personnel, expand weapons production and increase sustainability. It is noted that for this, society will have to change its mentality.
“According to experts and intelligence services, Russia will need six to ten years to rebuild its army to such an extent that it could decide to attack NATO. The clock will start ticking as soon as intense fighting in Ukraine ceases. Then Russia will be able to refocus its current production on rebuilding its armed forces,” the authors write.
It is noted that NATO must complete its own redeployment at least a year before Russia reaches military capabilities.
2023-11-19 14:59:00
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