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The Rising Euribor: What it Means for Variable Rate Mortgages

He Euribor It continues to fail, to the chagrin of those people who have contracted a variable rate mortgage. Thus, it closed the month of September at 4.145% (in August it was 4.073%). In this way, the Euribor The 12-month rate has gone from 2.23% to 4.20% in the last twelve months, which represents an increase of 197 basis points.

It is worth remembering that, during the month of September, the Euribor has reached historic highs. Specifically, it exceeded the range of 4.2%, an event that has not happened since 2008. Therefore, this is bad news for those who have a variable rate mortgage.

The consequence is that mortgage payments will rise, something that has been happening throughout 2023. Of course, from the financial comparator HelpMyCash they see the glass as half full, as the September value is very similar to that of July. “The Euribor is relatively stagnant,” point from the comparator.

How much will mortgages go up?

Those mortgages that have a revised interest with the September value of the Euribor will become more expensive as the rate applied on these loans has increased significantly.

The reason is simple: The price of this index was lower a year ago (2,233%) like a semester ago (3,467%).


Therefore, and assuming that the variable mortgage signed was for 150,000 euros, with a term of 25 years, and an interest of Euribor plus 1%, it would be as follows: if it is reviewed annually, its monthly payments will rise from 730 at 890 euros. That is to say, about 160 euros more per monthand almost 1,925 euros for the whole year, according to HelpMyCash.

If the review is semiannual, the monthly payments will increase (following the previous example) from 846 to 890 euros. Therefore, about 44 euros more per month, and about 262 euros per semester. In other cases, the increase will depend on the amount of the mortgage, the pending installments, and the interest rate of the revised variable mortgage.

Will the Euribor continue to rise?

To answer this question we must start from the basis that the price of oil and gas continue to rise. In other words, they do not allow inflation to drop to the 2% intended by the European Central Bank.

The ECB still has two opportunities throughout 2023 to raise, maintain or lower rates: October and December. According to Miquel Riera, mortgage analyst at HelpMyCash, it is very likely that he will not touch on his interests at his next meeting, while his decision in December will depend on how inflation and the eurozone economy evolve: “Therefore, we believe that the Euribor will rise slightly in the coming weeks or months and that will stabilize between 4% and 4.5% at the end of 2023”.

When will the Euribor go down?

THE ECB continues with its particular fight against inflation. Thus, in September it raised interest rates by 0.25 points to 4.5%. These are maximums since 2001. In other words, the tenth consecutive increase in the price of money in just over a year.

According to Christine Lagarde, president of the ECB, high interest rates will be maintained “as long as necessary” to get inflation back on track to 2%. Likewise, she indicated that there will be no new rate increases unless there are “significant disturbances” in prices.

[El Euríbor continúa sin tocar máximos: seguirá subiendo al ritmo del BCE aunque empieza a estabilizarse]

El Eurinbor “It continues to give a respite in contrast to the price of money raised to 4.5%,” says Rafael Moral, Hipoo mortgage analysis expert. “Cotiza around 20 or 25 basis points below the index, which may indicate this behavior al ‘alleged end’ of the bullish path of the Eurobor for early 2024.”

Of course, and although there are possibilities that interest rates will rise again, “the Euribor will remain at values ​​between 4% and 4.35% as long as external factors do not appear that aggravate inflation in the eurozone” .

2023-10-01 12:28:17
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