We often believe that some bizarre things will not happen, and when it finally happens, we will call it a “black swan event”.
When we see the Republican presidential candidate of the United States, Florida Governor DeSantis, if he is elected, he will terminate China’s most-favored-nation trade treatment. We will think that this is at most a “black swan event” and it is very difficult to happen, because DeSantis lags behind Trump in popularity, and Trump has a great chance to run for president on behalf of the Republican Party. Tice. Second, if DeSantis finally wins the election, he will not make such crazy decisions then.
American politics is more complicated than we think. Let’s see what DeSantis said first. In an economic policy speech in New Hampshire, he pointed out that his top priority is to take back economic control from China. In addition to ending China’s most-favored-nation status, it also includes prohibiting the import of goods made through the theft of intellectual property and preventing American companies from competing with the United States. China shares key technologies. DeSantis also said that the economic relationship between China and the United States will be greatly restricted to encourage the return of American capital.
On September 19, 2000, the U.S. Senate voted to give China permanent most-favored-nation status, paving the way for China to join the World Trade Organization. In 2001, China joined the World Trade Organization. Therefore, DeSantis’ suggestion is to regress Sino-US trade relations to the stage before China’s accession to the WTO, and return to the stage of reviewing trade terms with China year by year.
Don’t think this is just DeSantis’ isolated suggestion. On January 31 this year, the Republican Congressman of the United States, who is also the new chairman of the “Congressional and Executive Committee on China Issues”, and the Republican Congressman Tom Tiffany jointly proposed the 2023 version of ” The China Trade Relations Act calls for the revoking of the permanent normal trade relationship status that China has enjoyed for 21 years in response to the so-called CCP’s “genocide” against the Uyghurs. Although it has not been enacted into law, it is still a topic that is often raised for fun. During the election season, politicians raise it even more vigorously, because there is a market for anti-China.
Of course, decoupling and breaking the chain is a double-edged sword. Trump increased tariffs on Chinese goods and started a trade war against China. In the Biden era, the increased tariffs will be revoked. However, this story of decoupling did not bring a happy ending to the United States. Since the outbreak of the Sino-US trade war, China’s share of the overall US trade deficit has been shrinking, from 47% in 2018 to 32% in 2022. However, during this period, the trade surplus of other countries or regions with the US increased, and the combined share of Canada, Mexico, India, South Korea, Taiwan and Ireland in the US trade deficit rose from 24% to 36%.
The US trade war against China has not reduced its overall trade deficit. The US trade deficit rose from US$621 billion in 2018 to US$945.3 billion in 2022, a surge of 52%. In 2018, China accounted for US$291.9 billion in the US trade deficit, and by 2022 it will be US$302.5 billion, which is roughly the same.
The conclusion is that the U.S. fiscal deficit and insufficient savings are the root causes of the U.S. multilateral trade imbalance. The decoupling of the U.S. from China has not only failed to reduce the trade deficit, but also increased the trade deficit because of the need to buy expensive goods. This is a failed policy. However, politicians only talk about votes and not rationality. Who knows that the slogan “end the most-favored-nation treatment for China’s trade” will not turn from a black swan into a gray rhinoceros, and even one day it will become a reality?
“Bashi Newspaper” is an online newspaper that allows netizens to
Hold your phone or tablet to see it.
www.bastillepost.com
[email protected]
Lu Yongxiong
#YongxiongThe #Black #Swan #Turns #Gray #RhinoBus #Reviews
2023-08-01 16:00:00
