INSEE released this Thursday new data on the population in France on January 1, 2020. Hauts-de-France remains the fourth most populated region, but the figures are stagnant and tending to decline.
Hauts-de-France remains the fourth most populated region of France. But its population is stagnant. INSEE unveiled this Thursday the results of its latest census operation showing French demographics, region by region, on January 1, 2020.
With 5,997,700 inhabitants, Hauts-de-France maintains its position as the fourth most populated region of metropolitan France behind Ile-de-France, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and New Aquitaine. The population of the region represents 8% of the metropolitan population.
A stagnation that tends to decline
Between 2014 and 2020, the population of Hauts-de-France is stable, with a slight decline of 0.02%. However, in the period from 2009 to 2014, the region gained 12,400 inhabitants, an increase of 0.2%.
“Currently there is talk of stability, but it is the announcement of an imminent decline”, explains Delphine Léglise, deputy head of services and studies of the Insee des Hauts-de-France, to the microphones of BFM Grand Lille.
A trend that is explained by a “lack of attractiveness which results in more departures than arrivals in the region and generates an average loss of 18,400 inhabitants per year between 2014 and 2020”, explains INSEE. This migration deficit, calculated at -0.3% per year, is the highest in France, ahead of the regions of Grand Est, Normandy, Burgundy-Franche-Comté and Centre-Val de Loire.
Only one department of Hauts-de-France stands out: the Oise. “The Oise is home to 829,700 inhabitants as of January 1, 2020, or 14% of the population of Hauts-de-France. The third most populous department after Nord and Pas-de-Calais, it has the highest population growth in the region, with +0.2% per year”, indicates INSEE.
An increase of 18,000 people a year driven by “a high natural surplus (+0.4%) and a moderate and constant migration deficit since 2009 (-0.2%)”.
The North, still the most populated
For its part, the population of the North, the most populous department of France and of the region with 2.6 million inhabitants, equal to 43% of the regional population, is stagnant.
The number of northerners is proceeding “very slowly” with an increase of 0.03%, or 700 more inhabitants per year between 2014 and 2020. If the figure does not drop significantly, it is thanks to the high natural balance ( +0.4% ), led by young people in the population.
In the north, Lille remains the main center of attraction.
“As of January 1, 2020, the attraction area of Lille has 1.5 million inhabitants and occupies the 4th place of the most populated areas in France,” lists the INSEE.
Between 2014 and 2020, Lille’s population still decreased by 4,700 people a year, an increase of 0.3%. Lille, however, comprises 4% of the region’s population and retains its place as the tenth most populous commune in France. In the metropolis, several cities stand out for their dynamism: Tourcoing, with a population increase of 0.7% on average per year, but also Roubaix – +0.4%.
In the Pas-de-Calais, Lens (+0.6%) and Arras (+0.5%) are also gaining inhabitants. Unlike the large coastal cities such as Calais (-2%) and Boulogne-sur-Mer (0.8%) or the city of Dunkirk (-0.5%) in the North.
600,000 fewer inhabitants by 2070
If the stagnation remains controllable, the population of the Hauts-de-France tends towards a real population loss in the years to come.
“We are stable but with already a small loss, and we will continue to lose if it continues like this,” breathes Delphine Léglise, deputy head of services and studies at INSEE Hauts-de-France.
And INSEE’s forecasts for 2070 are not good, with an expected loss of 10% of inhabitants, or 600,000 people.
“If the unattractiveness continues, births decreasing and deaths continuing to increase as the population ages, we would be only 5,406,000 in 2070,” concludes Delphine Léglise.
