The Cac 40 continued its decline on Tuesday, but in the greatest calm, trading volumes limited to around 600 million euros. Sentiment remains cautious before the publication of key figures this afternoon in the United States.
At midday, the flagship index fell 0.53% to 6,802.80 points. Sign of the current aversion to risky assets, the laboratory Sanofi (+ 0.22%) appears among the rare increases of the day. EssilorLuxottica, Carrefour and Danone also hold up better than the market. Hermès International and French-style “techs”, Capgemini, Dassault Systems and Teleperformance also appear in the progressions of the day.
In New York, index futures contracts are in the red: -0.55% for the Dow Jones, while Home Depot loses 4% in pre-market quotations. The home furnishings and decor specialist posted higher than expected earnings per share in the second quarter. Customers were logically a little less numerous than a year ago, in full confinement, but with a slightly higher average basket. On the other hand, same-store sales only increased by 4.5% (more than 5% targeted by the consensus) and the group does not provide a forecast for the whole year.
Walmart, another component of the index, is also down (-1.5%). The world’s largest retailer also posted earnings per share above expectations for the quarter and for the first time is making a clear forecast of earnings per share, in a range of $ 6.20 to $ 6.35 for the first time. the whole year.
Retail sales in the sights
The main meeting is set for 2:30 p.m., with the announcement of July retail sales in the United States. They are expected to decline 0.2% over one month according to the Bloomberg consensus, after a jump of 0.6% in June. As for the statistics excluding the automobile, they are on the other hand expected to increase by 0.2%, after + 1.3%. Figures which in turn testify to a slowdown in growth, against the backdrop of the spread of the Delta variant, which is the source of new restrictive measures in Asia.
On the subject, Goldman Sachs analysts want to be reassuring. ” Growing growth in Covid cases is likely fueling the slowdown seen in China and declining manufacturing sentiment, but the economic impact – at least in the US and Europe – is unlikely to be significant “, They estimate in a note relayed this morning by CNBC.
To be followed a little later, at 3.15 p.m., industrial production for the same month. The Bloomberg consensus expects an increase of 0.5%.
The Fed would be close to a deal
These figures will of course be scrutinized by the Fed, a few days before the Jackson Hole Symposium (August 26 to 28), the annual meeting of the big money-makers. Will Fed Chairman Jerome Powell start talking about a tapering ? It is a hypothesis. The debate is in fact settled as to the timing of a reduction in asset purchases, today by $ 120 billion per month, and subsequently of a first hike in key rates. The Federal Reserve will publish the minutes of its last monetary policy meeting on Wednesday evening.
Meanwhile, Boston Branch President Eric Rosengren was very confident yesterday in an interview with the Wall Street Journal as to the strength of the US economy and its rate of growth in the coming quarters. Therefore, it considers that this asset purchase program could be completed in mid-2022.
According to Wall Street Journal Still, the Fed would start cutting asset purchases in three months, with members close to a deal. Such an action would provide more flexibility to raise interest rates if inflation remains high and unemployment falls rapidly.
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