That the number of infections would increase again after the June relaxation surprises neither virologist nor minister. But the fact that the coronavirus has been on the rise in recent days is a signal to be ‘vigilant and alert’, according to those involved.
Last weekend, RIVM peatted more than a thousand daily infections, more than twice as many as a week earlier. And so the corona curve climbs up again, with many infections especially among young people. “We still have to analyze it, but the increase is coming faster than hoped and expected,” says an insider from The Hague.
The cabinet’s corona core team will meet on Tuesday, it is not expected that there will be any acute additional restrictions to flatten the infection arc, says this source. The pressure on care is limited, with a total of 225 patients admitted (of which less than a hundred covid patients in IC for the first time on Sunday).
With the rapidly advancing Delta variant – estimated to now account for half of all infections – the Dutch corona approach is entering a new phase. Opposite the virus is a strong shield of vaccinated people, with more than sixteen million injections. More than 70 percent of adults have had their first vaccination, nearly 45 percent have been fully vaccinated. Meanwhile, the young people are also invited for a shot.
And so far, existing vaccines still seem to offer good protection against serious illness and death from the new variant. A Scottish study concludes that complete vaccination protects about 60 percent (with AstraZeneca) to 79 percent (Pfizer) against serious illness (admission and/or death) by the Delta variant.
A condition is full vaccination, says virologist Marion Koopmans (WHO and Erasmus MC). “So it’s a bit of a race between the virus and vaccine immunity. We see more and more clusters. That fits with reopening and looser handling of the rules. But then those precautions must be observed, such as with a negative test or a vaccine proof.”
At the disco in Enschede –a ‘super spread event’ with now 165 infections, stories were circulated about tampering with QR proofs during the first opening night. “If that’s true, there’s no stopping it,” says Koopmans. “Young people also need to think for themselves. If that happens more often, and if we continue to climb fast in the near future, you should think seriously about all those festivals too. Although the country is too small if you call that.”
Koopmans thinks it is ‘not wise’ for the Netherlands to put everyone ‘green’ immediately after the Janssen jab and give access to one and a half meter-free parties, as the cabinet has decided. “It just always takes a while to get protected. It’s a risk assessment. But if this is one of the reasons for the increase, I think you should reconsider that. That is annoying, but it is even more annoying if we have to scale back many more relaxations in the future.”
It is still relatively quiet in hospitals. They now see an average of about ten new corona patients a day. But this could increase if the virus jumps from younger groups to older people who have not yet been fully vaccinated, Koopmans warns. “There is also a significant group that is not fully vaccinated. The reproduction value of the Delta variant is now above one. So if this continues, we will also see an increase in hospital admissions, but much less immediately than in the phase without vaccinations.”
That is why the cabinet preaches ‘vigilance’, as outgoing Minister of Health Hugo de Jonge (CDA) did on Friday after the cabinet meeting. “To anyone who thinks: the virus is gone, we are ‘off the hook’ I say: certainly not, we must remain vigilant.”
In the unlikely event that it explodes in a region, that fire must be put out ‘as locally as possible’, for example by closing a disco or pub. “And if it suddenly rises in a certain municipality, you can also use the spray can. We have the testing, tracing and isolation, but now we also have the vaccination.” Virologist Koopmans argues for caution: “I would prefer to see things a little more controlled. It’s a bit of an experiment that way.”
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