As the clock passed 01 local time on Tuesday night in New York, the American poll guru Nate Silver posted his latest prediction for the election on his own statistics website FiveThirtyEight.
On the website, the opinion polls are weighted with previous results and methodology, and there is good reason to follow what Silver concludes after conducting number crunching.
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– Biden wins
FiveThirtyEight’s latest prediction is bad news for incumbent President Donald Trump.
The site gives Trump a 10 percent chance of winning, and Biden 89 percent. It also believes that there is a one percent chance that there will be a draw, and that both will get 269 voters each. Then it is the House of Representatives that decides the election.
“Trump needs a mistake (in the polls) that is bigger than normal in his favor, but the real possibility that the polls underestimate Trump’s support is the reason he has a path to re-election,” Silver writes.
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In addition, FiveThirtyEight believes that there is almost a 75 percent chance that the Democrats will regain control of the Senate. It will give Joe Biden and the Democrats political leeway if he wins the election.
Otherwise, if Biden wins and the Republicans retain the majority in the Senate, the situation will be the same as in Obama’s last six years as president: Almost every policy proposal the Obama administration came up with was voted down in the Senate.
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Possible «blue wave»
Silver also believes the Democrats will keep the majority in the House of Representatives, and perhaps expand the majority a little.
“The general election environment favors Democrats, which is one of the reasons why they have good odds of controlling all three branches of government (a 72 percent chance, according to our forecast),” Silver wrote.
In recent days, both Biden and Trump have waged an intense election campaign to secure the last votes before election day.
An average of the nationwide polls gives Biden 50.7 percent, compared to Trump’s 44 percent, according to RealClearPolitics.
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– False polls
As is well known, this is not the most important thing, as the battle is out in the states. And it is possible to get the most votes, as Hillary Clinton did during the election four years ago, but still lose the election.
The two presidential candidates are fighting for 538 voters. This means that 270 is the magic number. When one of the candidates has secured the number of voters, he or she can be declared the winner.
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The fight is now primarily in the swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida and Arizona.
Also in the tipping states, Biden has had a small lead on Trump in recent days, but the lead is not big enough for Biden to relax.
The president himself takes the polls with crushing calm.
– I see these false polls. We will win anyway, he told fans last night.
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Reported sun
FiveThirtyEight also pours cold water on the blood of those who are skeptical that Biden will win.
“A 10 percent chance of winning is not a 0 percent chance. In fact, it’s about the same as the odds of it raining in downtown Los Angeles. And it’s raining there. “In downtown Los Angeles, there are about 36 rainy days this year, or about a tenth chance of a rainy day),” Silver writes.
For the record: According to yr.no, sun and 25 degrees have been reported in Los Angeles on election day.
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