The Covid-19 does not seem to have the same gravity and the same lethality wherever there are outbreaks and chains of transmission. On March 6, we looked at this question: the first thing is to interpret with caution the calculations of the case fatality rate. They depend on the quality and reliability of the data. Even without this being deliberate, they are sometimes far from being exhaustive, especially at the beginning of the epidemic, where we essentially counts the most serious cases, which overestimates the severity. Intensive test campaigns, as is the case in South Korea, identify mild cases of infection that will “dilute” severe cases and decrease the case fatality rate.
Beyond the uncertainties about how the case fatality rate can be overestimated or underestimated, the differences observed then between the Chinese provinces illustrate the fundamental equation of epidemics, of which the two variables are, on the one hand, the capacities of the healthcare system to cope with and, on the other hand, the time factor.
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