Inflation in the United States has cooled, and the market is convinced that the cycle of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve has ended. With hot money returning,New Taiwan DollarThere was a drama of appreciation this week, with a sharp increase of 1.56% in a single week, standing firm at 31 yuan.The director of Huiyin analyzed that the depreciation of the New Taiwan dollar has ended, but how long and how strong the appreciation can be remains to be seen.foreign investmentFace and the trend of the RMB are also critical.
U.S. economic data shows that inflation is cooling, and the end of Xi’s visit has also eased tensions between the United States and China, with foreign capital pouring in to cover the losses.Taiwan stockswhich also stimulated the New Taiwan Dollar to surge sharply. The exchange rate rose five times this week, and strongly returned to 31 yuan on the 17th, with a closing price of 31.856 yuan, a new high in more than 2 and a half months.
The head of Huiyin analyzed that the New Taiwan dollar has been falling continuously this year, and finally ushered in a big reversal this week. Moreover, there are signs of easing internal and external unfavorable factors, and the downward trend should have come to an end.
The director of Huiyin explained that from the perspective of external factors, expectations of continued interest rate hikes in the United States are gone, and there is even the possibility of an early interest rate cut, and dollar buying has turned weak. As for the RMB, although China’s economy is still weak, the government has taken steps to stabilize the exchange rate and has taken corresponding measures on issues such as real estate and local debt. The financial crisis has been avoided. As the depreciation of the RMB has paused, it has also reduced the negative impact of the continued decline of the Taiwan dollar. condition.
The director of Huiyin went on to analyze the internal factors. In terms of fundamentals, the technology industry has gradually emerged from inventory pressure and has become optimistic about the future. As for funds, the market expects that the cycle of interest rate hikes will end, interest rate cuts may come early, and the financial environment will become looser. , bond yields fell, and foreign investors also covered Taiwan stocks. “The fundamentals of Taiwan stocks have bottomed out, and funds are relatively loose. It is a good time to establish positions, so foreign investors have been quite aggressive in buying (Taiwan stocks) these days. of”.
Foreign exchange traders pointed out that in terms of Asian currencies, the yuan and the yen both stopped depreciating and rebounded, providing support. If the two conditions for the Asian currency to rise and the inflow of foreign capital come together next week, the New Taiwan dollar will continue to strengthen and break through the price of 31.8 yuan.
However, the director of Huiyin reminded that Taiwan’s fundamentals have bottomed out, but it is not a full recovery. It will take time for demand in Europe and China to pick up, and it will not be that fast for the industry to resume full growth.
The director of Huiyin analyzed that the influx of short-term hot money can push up the New Taiwan dollar. In the medium term, Taiwan’s fundamentals are not strong enough, and US dollar interest rates are still high. Although exporters have real demand for foreign currency sales, interest rate differentials may cause Manufacturers only sell what they need and keep the rest in US dollars, weakening part of the appreciation force; the New Taiwan dollar has stopped falling, but it is still too early to say whether it will appreciate steadily.
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2023-11-18 08:40:15
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