The monetary policy dilemma was the main topic of debate on the second day of the Ambrosetti Forum in Cernobbio. The opinions of economists, managers and entrepreneurs differ because the greater probability of the materialisation of a recession does not justify less vigilance on inflation. But if the “professors” are ready to justify lower growth in the name of price stability, on the other hand those who operate on the market are concerned by the tightening of investment financing conditions. The absence of the ECB president, Christine Lagarde, a frequent guest at the workshop, shone on Lario.
This is the case of the dialectic between the Nobel Prize winner Joseph Stiglitz and the president of Generali and professor at Bocconi, Andrea Sironi. “Europe now risks a real recession: the ECB because the United States have more room for maneuver to help the economy and, therefore, the ECB will have to be much more cautious”, said the economist, adding that Italy risks «what is called a hard landing», i.e. a pronounced recession. According to Sironi, on the other hand, “the action of the central banks in recent years has been necessary even if perhaps a little late, I believe the fight against inflation is not over but I think that relentlessly pursuing the 2% target is not the most wise to do.”
Even the CEO of Edison, Nicola Monti, is convinced of this. “Raising interest rates does not favor growth, especially in our sector, the energy sector where there are so many investments to be made”. Europe will have to spend much more than the 90 billion a year to complete the green transition and “inflation drives up the construction costs of new plants to decarbonise energy production, which is why we cultivate the expectation of having interest that they subside and that we return to normal as soon as possible ».
Enrico Marchi, president of Banca Finint and of Save, the Venice airport, is also on the same wavelength as Sironi. “I think the interest rate level is destined to fall, but the important thing is not to fixate on the fetish of 2% inflation because suddenly landing a plane from 10,000 meters above sea level means causing it to crash”, he remarked, criticizing the speed of the tightening carried out by the ECB. Concerns also shared by Emma Marcegaglia, president of Marcegaglia Investments. “There were two mistakes: the ECB intervened too late because it thought that inflation was a temporary phenomenon and, consequently, the increases were made too quickly”, he explained, specifying that “now it would be appropriate to stop and to reflect on whether it is appropriate to provoke a recession”.
However, not all managers feel the same way. According to the CEO of Arriva Italia, Angelo Costa, “it is impossible for rates below 2% to be revised, while levels between 3 and 4% could be considered balanced”.
For Carlarberto Guglielminotti, CEO of Nhoa (storage systems and e-mobility), however, rates are not a problem. “Those who finance our projects keep betting on us because interest rates have risen, while those who complain operate in mature areas that have reached the end of the cycle”
2023-09-03 06:52:00
#Cernobbios #party #turns #ECB
