Throughout history, there have been events that initially seemed like temporary glitches, but then turned into something very long
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Russia’s attack on Ukraine is becoming similar to previous numerous geopolitical crises. Throughout history, there have been events that initially seemed like temporary disruptions, but then turned into something very long. What began as a brief confrontation very often turned into a seemingly endless swamp.
Most a well-known example of such a crisis is the First World Warwhich George Kennan very aptly called «great initial catastrophe” of the 20th century. The sheer scale of the mobilization in August 1914 reinforced the general belief that this conflict could not last long and that it would “be over by Christmas”. However, a war of attrition followed, with little change on the Western Front. The city of Ypres in Flanders was the scene of fierce battles in 1914 and again became such a place in 1918. Will there be battles in Mariupol in 2026?
Yes, the government of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is committed to the idea that Russia «in no case should win” this war, and the great German philosopher Jurgen Habermas said that Ukraine «shouldn’t lose.” But when European political and intellectual leaders come out with such dramatic statements, they clearly compensate with words for a fundamental sense of helplessness. What in general can such statements mean in a stalemate situation? Unless Russia collapses or undergoes sudden regime change and democratization, then it is hard to imagine how Ukraine can «don’t lose.”
Crises like the Ukrainian one usually follow the well-known pattern of escalation and politicization. As the conflict drags on, its participants are increasingly investing in it, not only financially, but also spiritually. Sacrifices made for a common cause turn this conflict into something sacred – or at least close to sacred. This is a necessary step for those in power. Since no one wants to be held accountable for causing senseless deaths, human losses must be served with deep meaning. That’s what it’s trying to do Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church Kirillblessing Vladimir Putin’s war.
Once such tendencies take root, it becomes extremely difficult to imagine how the conflict can be ended without the complete collapse of one of the parties. It is never an easy task to interpret the mindset of a secretive dictator, and we may never know exactly what forces are driving the Kremlin. However, it is reasonable to assume that Putin’s strategy is to hang on until Europe and the United States are no longer able or willing to continue to support Ukraine and punish Russia. Undoubtedly, the Kremlin hopes that the rich countries will not be able to endure the hardships of rising fuel and food prices and the impact of this growth on their economies and incomes.
Stalemate wartime leaders dream of expanding conflict
As history shows, stalemate wartime state leaders dream of expanding the conflict. Putin probably also hopes that the global food crisis provoked by this war will lead to political unrest in vulnerable regions that import food. (for example, the Middle East), and thus raise a new wave of refugees to Europe. Putin and his entourage have already proven that they are no strangers to using desperate migrants and refugees as weapons against the West.
There is also an alternative scenario: Russian strategists can count on the fact that over time the West will simply lose interest in this conflict. In our information-packed age, attention spans are sadly short, and the Western public’s imagination is easily captured by sensational scandals, whether it’s a celebrity row in court or a horrific school shooting. For societies “tired of Ukraine”, the footage from Severodonetsk may seem distant and obscure.
In addition, elections are held regularly in democratic countries, so policies can change in key countries; maybe it’s just a matter of time. The Kremlin was clearly hoping that Marine Le Pen would beat French President Emmanuel Macron in the second round of French elections held in April. But what if this conflict drags on into 2025, when high inflation and shattered hopes for a quick settlement dampen Western resolve? How will the next Trump administration approach this issue? (or one of the Trumpists) in the USA?
In the meantime, each side will continue to fight for control of political rhetoric. While declaring support for Ukraine, Western leaders claim they are resisting aggression, preventing genocide, trying to contain fascist authoritarianism, and preserving the system of multilateral relations. (multilateralism). But very similar rhetoric can be heard in Russia, where Putin began «special military operation” ostensibly to stop NATO aggression, counter Ukrainian Nazism, prevent genocide, and save multilateralism from American hegemony.
While Western politicians expose Putin’s lies, Russian propagandists create their own version of history and reality, as if reflected in a distorted mirror. According to Maria Zakharova, director of the Information Department at the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, George Orwell’s warning in the novel 1984 was directed not against the USSR or the Nazi regime, but against Western liberalism.
Does the use of the same rhetoric by both sides mean that they can have some kind of discussion about ending the war? Or does it mean exactly the opposite: the words have lost their meaning?
The second option is the most likely, which means that winning the war is the only way to restore meaning. But even this will not end the crisis. At the end of the First World War, the victors constantly talked about democracy and self-determination, but at the same time created the conditions for the continuation of the conflict in other forms. To avoid a similar outcome this time, a victory would have to lead to fundamental changes in the international political order.
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Copyright: Project Syndicate2022
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