JPMorgan Asset Management believes the valuation exceeds a actions have already been deleted and bond yield is above equilibrium levels. German bank states that Czech crown it is the second most expensive liquid currency in the world. And Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisors, analyzes the likelihood of a correction a American market real estate.
Crown the second most expensive currency in the world: The concept of FEER indicates the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate, which should correspond to the overall macroeconomic equilibrium including capital and current account. Along with purchasing power parity PP extension and Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) calculations use it German bank when estimating the cheapest and most expensive currencies in the world. Banking economists summarize their calculations in the following table. According to him, the Norwegian one is now the cheapest crownbehind her Turkish Liras and Swedish crown:
Source: Chirping
Not all crowns but they are cheap, according to the graph, ours is the second most expensive currency in the world. It just surpasses her American dollar.
60/40 and 7.2% per annum: On Bloomberg, they reported on a slew of strategists who say the 60/40 investing strategy is “just dead.” It is a portfolio that is 60% made up of Actions and from 40% of obligations and JPMorgan Asset Management’s John Bilton explained why he thinks it’s far from dead. He believes that in this context it is “mainly the ability to think long-term”.
The expert estimates it dollars a portfolio built on the 60/40 principle should generate an average annual return of 7.2% over the next ten years. “We’ve had a tough year,” said Bilton, who said the vast majority of investors are watching and evaluating short-term events. Including what it does central bank of the United States. He acknowledges that 60/40 wallets have suffered in the past 12 months tall losses, but it should be different in the future. How come?
Bilton backs that up bond yield now in United States of America is above its equilibrium levels. And overvaluations “disappeared” from the stock market. At the same time, the corporate sector is fundamentally strong and “this is not a repeat of 2008.” That is, the event that the banking sector collapsed. And not a repeat of 2012 when the financial system came under pressure Europe. The expert believes that a process is now underway in which “dislocations from the past” are straightened out and investors should look more to the future.
What about cash? There is a difference in returns Actions depending on how companies do they handle cash? Goldman Sachs addresses this topic in the chart below, where it compares the yield of the three types companies: Those who mainly focus on payment dividend and for redemptions. Then companies that go in the direction of spending on research and development and investments in general. And also companiesranging on the road mergers and acquisitions paid for in cash:
Source: Chirping
According to the chart, the last-mentioned group performs worse than the entire stock index since 1992. The second group is about 20% higher, and by far the highest relative returns are obtained by companies that prefer buybacks and dividends.
Goldman Sachs also shows a difference in forecasts for the American economy in the next year. These provisions apply to both this company and to side gradually reduce consent. However, the bank’s economists have been maintaining growth for some time HDP v United States of America it will be around 1% next year. Consensus, however, continues to decline:
Source: Chirping
Real estate ripe for correction: Bleakley Advisors Chief Investment Officer Peter Boockvar spoke on CNBC’s American real estate market may undergo up to 20% correction in some segments. Dallas speaks the same way Powered and Bookkvar recalled in this context that reality v United States of America during the last two to allow they were growing rapidly, now they have increased by leaps and bounds mutual rates. This is an environment that is ripe for correction.
The expert also mentioned this real estate market it is an important part of the whole American economy. They then mentioned the analysis on CNBC Powered from Dallas, according to which a correction of 15-20% a reality could reduce household spending by up to 0.7%. Boockvar added that the effect of wealth is u real estate much bigger than you Actions.
