At a New Year’s press conference on the 18th, President Moon said, “Even though the population of Korea decreased last year, a whopping 610,000 households increased.” “As the number of households soared, demand exceeded the predicted housing supply, and it encouraged real estate prices to rise.” .
Fact check
Single-person household growth is similar to before
Increased purchases only after the Moon Jae-in administration
When the house price jumped, the single household was also bought.
– It is said that as many people did not live in one house but were split into single-person households, housing shortages and house prices rose. However, statistics and expert analysis are the opposite of President Moon’s remarks.
① Have single-person households really increased?= As President Moon said, it is true that the number of single-person households is increasing. However, an important’fact’ is missing from this remark. The number of single-person households has not increased significantly since the Moon Jae-in administration.
Number of households per person per year. Graphic = Kim Eun-kyo [email protected]
– According to the National Statistical Office, the increase in single-person households compared to the previous year was not significantly different from the Park Geun-hye administration in 2016 (194,175) and the Moon Jae-in administration in 2017 (22,1062 households) and 2018 (22,9917 households). . Although the growth rate expanded in 2019 (29,8922 households), it is not so much different from the previous one. Last year’s single-person household count has yet to come out.
In order for President Moon’s remarks to be correct, it must work regardless of the regime in which the composition of’increase in single-person households → increase in purchase of single-person households → supply shortage against demand → increase in house prices’. However, during the Park Geun-hye administration, when the number of single-person households increased by nearly 200,000 per year, house prices did not rise as much as they are now.
② Have single-person households raised the house price?= Looking at the statistics on home ownership prepared by the National Statistical Office, the number of single-person households with houses in 2016 decreased by 4.9% compared to the previous year. That year, the total number of single-person households increased by nearly 200,000, but their home purchases decreased.
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Increasing the number of single-person homeowners. Graphic = Kim Eun-kyo [email protected]
– It was the Moon Jae-in administration that changed the pattern. Since 2017, the number of single-person households has started to increase significantly. According to Statistics Korea’s housing ownership statistics, the proportion of single-person households with a house continued to increase in 2017 (6.7%), 2018 (6.1%), and 2019 (5.8%).
Experts criticize President Moon’s remarks on the basis of these statistics as being aligned with reality in the opposite direction. It is pointed out that it is not that’the price of the house has risen due to the increase in the number of single-person households’ purchases’, but’there is an increase in the price of the house, so even single-person households (who didn’t buy a lot of houses before) jumped into the house purchase procession’.
Professor Kwon Dae-jung of the Department of Real Estate at Myongji University said, “Even if the number of single-person households increases, not all of them are buying houses, and it cannot be said that it has had a decisive effect on the increase in housing prices.” Rather, single-person households who were stimulated by the government’s real estate policy The president said the cause and effect were reversed because it seemed to be buying a house.”
Sejong = Reporter Kim Namjun [email protected]
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