In the wake of the fierce battles in the Gaza Strip, in which the Israeli army began to suffer heavy losses, the American and Israeli press – while anticipating the speech of the next Secretary General of Hezbollah – continue to focus on the party’s activity across the Lebanese border, and the possibility of mistakes that could lead the regional parties to undesirable consequences. His consequences.
“The date for the overwhelming Israeli reaction”
After the Biden administration made clear to Israel its intention not to support any Israeli preventive action against Hezbollah, so that this would not lead to igniting a regional war that America might be drawn into.. The American website “The Hill” believes that Hezbollah’s destruction of the “Azrieli” skyscrapers in Tel Aviv, or a direct strike on the Knesset or the Dimona nuclear reactor, would rise to the level that would require an overwhelming Israeli response.
The site adds that mistakes can occur in the war on the northern front, as Hezbollah may launch a missile towards settlements or any other northern city, causing the death of hundreds of civilians. When this terrifying scenario occurs, the first thing that will come to mind is the following question: Can Israel control itself and respond to the enormous pressure exerted by the Biden administration, which prefers to allow Hezbollah to fight a war of attrition rather than a comprehensive regional war?
Waiting for the next battle
The site highlights the state of terror that befell settlers on the Lebanese border after the events in Gaza, as Israelis living in the north began to believe that they would not be able to return to their homes if the party continued to randomly target civilians and threaten to invade at any time.
As for the possibility of the party carrying out devastating offensive operations in the current battle, the site indicates that it is not known whether Iran wants to use its force now, after Israel’s ground entry into Gaza, or reserve this force for another day as part of its long-term strategy to eliminate the Jewish state. . However, there is a belief among many analysts that the presence of American aircraft carriers has changed Iranian calculations, making them content with enjoying the destruction that Hamas has caused to the Israeli psyche and waiting for another day.
Nasrallah made the decision!
For its part, the Israeli newspaper “Jerusalem Post” published a report on the situation on the northern front, especially since the launching of rockets is no longer symbolic and sporadic, but has turned into daily operations against Israel, in which larger rockets are used that can reach a greater distance, in addition to… Stationary anti-tank missiles, systematic disruption of border control, and attempts to carry out small infiltration operations. These attacks led to the evacuation of an estimated 125,000 settlers from the border areas.
But after the ground invasion of the Gaza Strip entered its fifth day, the newspaper stresses that it can be said with caution that the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, decided to avoid opening the front wide. This is clearly demonstrated by the fact that the party does not use its missile arsenal, which has a striking missile force and is capable of launching between 6,000 and 8,000 missiles per day towards Israel, which far exceeds the record recorded by Hamas, which amounts to about 2,000 missiles on the first day of the war. It has been approaching 50 to 200 missiles per day since then.
While the Israeli army has a four-layer missile defense system to shoot down some of these more advanced missiles, the newspaper reveals that military expectations have estimated over the years that this system will not be able to shoot down all of the party’s missiles. Even with a 90 percent success rate, the fall of 10 percent of these 150,000 missiles would inevitably lead to the destruction of Israel.
A new approach
In a related context, the American New York Times quoted a regional diplomat in Beirut as saying that Hezbollah appears to be curbing its attacks, which reached their peak last week, to avoid igniting a broader war. He added that the party informed its partners of its new approach, which states that Hamas is in a good position and no longer needs its help.
Iran has spent years building a network of loyal, interconnected militias across the Middle East, including Syria, Iraq and Yemen, to help it expand its influence, influence the internal politics of Arab countries and deter Israel from launching strikes targeting its nuclear program. Many of these groups have received training from Hezbollah and have already joined the regional fight in limited ways. But as the most skilled party in the Middle East, it represents, according to the newspaper, the most valuable card that Iran can play against Israel. Therefore, the risks of engaging more widely in the war are great for Hezbollah, given the two American aircraft carriers stationed in the Mediterranean, which could strike it forcefully.
Israeli weaknesses
On the other side, Israel is avoiding a major confrontation with Hezbollah, despite its possession of precision-guided missiles capable of hitting sensitive targets, and its holding many cards and surprises. On this specific point, Maha Yahya, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, says: “Hezbollah today is in a position that allows it to inflict pain on Israel if it chooses to enter this war. The range of response that Hezbollah can provide is very diverse. “He does not need to make a ground incursion into Israel. In cooperation with Iran, he can start using the Syrian front, and there may be attacks outside Israel, targeting Israeli interests. This has happened before.”
Moreover, the Israeli army has proven that it is not fully prepared to fight well-trained groups. This is what Andrew Exum, former Deputy Assistant Secretary at the US Department of Defense for Middle East Affairs, explained to the American newspaper, “Israel still has an organized army to defeat poorly trained military forces in Egypt or Syria, as it did in the 1970s. This is what I can confirm here.” It is the lack of readiness of this army to fight well-trained militias that have a strong doctrine, such as Hezbollah and Hamas.”
2023-11-01 22:08:11
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