The “train of normalization” of Arab countries in their relations with Israel stopped at Saudi Arabia, which was ready to ride it in turn after the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco. This pause a few days ago was circumstantial, awaiting the completion of the rest of the conditions for this “historic normalization” under American auspices. However, the data and circumstances have changed, according to some observers, after the attack launched by the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) on Saturday against Israel and Tel Aviv’s declaration that it is in a “state of war.” Will the normalized relations of Arab countries with Tel Aviv really be affected by this new situation in the region?
Published on: 10/11/2023 – 17:04
8 minutes
Will it break down?Normalization train“Arab countries’ relations with Israel? This is the question that observers are asking today, with increasing intensity The conflict between Israel and Hamas Following the movement’s attack on October 7, which resulted in the deaths of 1,200 Israelis and 950 Palestinians, according to the latest statistics on Wednesday.
The campaign for Arab countries to normalize their relations with Israel was met with criticism from the Palestinian side, especially Hamas and what is known as the “Axis of Resistance,” under which Iran and its allies in the region fall. Tehran views the normalization processes by Arab capitals with Tel Aviv as a “stab in the back” for the Palestinians.
The UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan normalized their relations with Israel in 2020, which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised before the United Nations Assembly earlier, considering that the process launched a “new era of peace.” But his recent speech on Saturday, in which he declared that Israel was in a state of “war,” carried a new picture of the charged and dangerous atmosphere awaiting the region, which might disrupt the “normalization train,” at least temporarily, at a time when Saudi Arabia was ready to ride it, too.
‘Dangerous escalation’
this Dangerous escalation In the region, the Arab countries did not remain silent in front of him. Emirati Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed stressed, “The current situation requires urgent action from all international actors in order to reduce tension and prevent the situation from getting out of control,” calling for “the highest levels of wisdom to be exercised.” The Emirati Minister also stressed “the importance of calming down the situation.” “Situations.”
The Emirates News Agency said, “His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, President of the State, ordered the provision of urgent aid to the Palestinian brothers in the amount of twenty million dollars… in light of the difficult humanitarian conditions that the Palestinian brothers are going through.” She added that this support comes through the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) within the framework of the UAE’s positions and approach towards supporting brothers in various circumstances and extending a helping hand to them, which is one of the constants of the UAE.
But Abu Dhabi did not hesitate to criticize Hamas either. It expressed its “deep dissatisfaction” over the Hamas and Islamic Jihad movements taking Israeli civilians hostage in the Gaza Strip. In response, the Israeli Consul in Dubai, Liron Zaslansky, wrote on her account on the “X” website (formerly Twitter): “We extend our sincere thanks and gratitude to the United Arab Emirates for its statement.”
For its part, Morocco on Sunday called on the Arab League Council to hold an emergency meeting at the level of foreign ministers to discuss the deteriorating situation in the Gaza Strip and ways to “stop the dangerous escalation.” The Moroccan Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement: “The Kingdom of Morocco called on the Council of the League of Arab States to hold an emergency meeting of the Council at the level of Arab foreign ministers to consult and coordinate regarding the deteriorating situation in the Gaza Strip and the outbreak of military actions targeting civilians.” She added that the meeting also aims to “discuss ways to stop this dangerous escalation.” Both Bahrain and Morocco condemned “the targeting of civilians by any party.”
Are the normalized relations of countries with Tel Aviv affected by the war between Israel and Hamas?
The Moroccan website Hespress asks, “Will the war between Israel and Hamas push Rabat to reconsider its relations with Tel Aviv?”, before adding in the text of the article: “Some readings have begun to recall the historical facts of what is happening and suggest the possibility of repeating the scenarios that had governed relations between Morocco and Israel.” In such circumstances, which amounted to the closure of the Israeli liaison office in Rabat during the Palestinian Intifada of 2002.”
“However, these readings are currently colliding with a new reality, as Morocco is linked to relations and agreements with the Israeli side that make taking such a step ‘almost impossible’,” which is what Moroccan political analyst Mohamed Choucair said on the aforementioned website.
And so that it is not understood that the normalization option is an acceptance of all Israeli positions, the expert in international relations, Moussaoui Al-Ajlawi, explains to the Moroccan website that such an option came “to alert the Israeli entity that the Arab Peace Initiative is on the table, and not normalization for the sake of normalization, and it is a message for Israel to advance a political solution.” And the two-state solution.”
This new situation dealt a strong blow to the efforts of Riyadh and Tel Aviv to normalize their relations. Brian Katulis, vice president for policy at the Middle East Institute in Washington, told Agence France-Presse that such an agreement “was always a difficult summit to climb, and now it has become even more difficult.”
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman confirmed in September that he was getting “more and more” close to normalization with Israel, but he repeated his country’s position that any agreement must include addressing Palestinian issues. He said, “We hope that (the agreement discussions) will lead to a result that makes life easier for the Palestinians and allows Israel to play a role in the Middle East.”
After the escalation on Saturday, the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs recalled its “repeated warnings of the dangers of the situation exploding as a result of the continued occupation, depriving the Palestinian people of their legitimate rights, and repeating systematic provocations against their sanctities.”
Saudi researcher Aziz Al-Ghasyan believed that Riyadh’s position aims to refute doubts that the Kingdom will prioritize normalization at the expense of supporting the rights of the Palestinians, explaining in a statement to Agence France-Presse that “this situation pushed Saudi Arabia to return to its traditional role (…) Netanyahu placed another obstacle to the discussions.” Because he said, “This is a war now. I do not expect normalization to occur against the backdrop of a war.”
“War will be long”
The relations between Israel and the Arab countries affected by Tel Aviv will be affected “on several levels,” according to the Egyptian expert in international relations, Muhammad Al-Yamani, given that it has entered into cooperation with it in various fields, especially the economic aspect, considering that “Israel wants to expand the war to achieve new goals.”
In such circumstances, normalized countries are in a difficult situation, given that “the Arab peoples, without exception, support and follow the Palestinian cause,” according to Al-Yamani, who notes that “the Arab movement, at the level of capitals, remains weak and unbalanced in the absence of consensus among the countries of the region.” Which did not move to provide aid to the Palestinians,” according to Al-Yamni’s statements.
Demonstrations in support of the Palestinians were held in the first days of the attack in Morocco and Bahrain. This mobilization may increase if the conflict continues, as Andreas Craig, an analyst at King’s College in London, warns in a statement to Agence France-Presse.
“Even countries like the UAE, where there is no real civil society, will have to ensure that public support for the Palestinian cause is consistent with the government’s policy and vision,” Craig says.
“This war will be prolonged and may turn into a regional war,” according to the predictions of Egyptian expert Muhammad Al-Yamani. “The normalization train may stop for a long time at the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, as it was about to enter into relations with Israel through an American, and all conditions were available for that, but it may retreat from this normalization due to the occupation’s practices in Gaza, the West Bank, and Jerusalem.”
Boualem Ghobshi
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2023-10-11 15:04:03
