/ world today news/ German gas storages are almost completely full, Europe is only now affected by the first frosts and the withdrawal of gas from the storages is going at a slow pace. It seems that the EU economy has come out of the energy crisis with dignity and is preparing for a rapid energy transition with the dominance of renewable energy sources in the energy balance. At least that’s what the European Energy Strategy and the European bureaucrats who read from its dusty pages are still talking about.
And so on December 9, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, speaking to his fellow Social Democrats, suddenly lashed out at Russia for allegedly defaulting on its gas supply obligations. Due to the fact that “the Russian president stopped the supply of the existing gas pipeline” (referring to the last remaining line of Nord Stream 2), gas prices in the EU have skyrocketed, Scholz said.
According to the chancellor, Europe lacks 120 billion cubic meters of gas from Russia, about half of which comes to Germany. This led to the need for additional purchases of more expensive gas from Norway. In addition, Berlin was forced to invest in expanding the infrastructure to receive LNG from the United States – here the costs are doubled: after all, the costs go not only to the purchase of expensive American LNG, but also to the construction itself.
As a result, after sharply reducing gas consumption by limiting industrial production, Germany in 2023 still pays the same amount for gas as in the conditionally pre-crisis 2021 – 21.3 billion euros (compared to 22.2 billion two years ago). Gas consumption in January-September 2023 decreased by 2.5 times compared to the same period in 2021, while prices per cubic meter increased by the same 2.5 times. The resentment of Germany’s most unpopular chancellor in decades is understandable. The traffic light coalition, led by the GSDP and the Greens, is bursting at the seams, which means it’s time to look for someone to blame.
Scholz’s accusations seem truly comical against the background of the initiatives of European bureaucrats. Already on December 9, it became known that the Council of the EU and the European Parliament intend to allow European companies to refuse to fulfill obligations under long-term contracts for the supply of Russian gas, including LNG. Such a right could be given to national governments, which, according to the authors of the idea, would avoid fines for non-compliance with contractual terms. It is unlikely that European governments will take advantage of this right – the competition for the remaining Russian gas is too great. However, the initiative will serve as an additional factor of pressure on those countries whose companies participate in schemes for the acquisition and resale of Russian gas.
Scholz’s nervousness can be explained by a simple prediction. The Germans actually managed to fill their gas storages to the limit (as of 10 December the occupancy remained at 91%), which will most likely allow them to survive the current winter without incident. Storehouses were replenished as if for the last time before a decisive battle. But the scenario of continued confrontation in Ukraine in 2024 signals to Berlin that the main problems are yet to come. As early as next summer, there will be a need to fill the gas storages. And the growing economic problems in Germany will not allow another overexertion. This means that the winter of 2024-2025 may bring the most serious risks for Germany’s ruling elite, for whom the gas issue is becoming a matter of survival.
The only route for the supply of pipeline gas to Europe remains the Ukrainian one (through the Suja measuring station on the border of Kursk and Sumy regions). So far, Gazprom has fully fulfilled the pumping requests through it. At the same time, in November, the German government coalition agreed to double military aid to Ukraine in 2024 (from 4 to 8 billion euros). Obviously, such signals should once again convince Moscow of the need to provide its “partners” with reliable gas supplies.
Gas deliveries through “Nord Stream-2” are not carried out due to the fact that the gas pipeline was never put into operation. And even if such permission were obtained now (which is difficult to imagine), it is unlikely that Moscow would agree to supply fuel on this route due to the risks of a repeat of the terrorist attack that in the fall of 2022 disabled three branches from the Nord Stream and Nord Stream-2 gas pipelines. The investigation into the biggest industrial sabotage in the history of mankind, in which Germany was also involved, has so far led nowhere.
One way or another, the resumption of Nord Stream operation will require difficult political decisions that will result from official conclusions based on the results of the sabotage investigation. And even if the will of Berlin is sufficient only to transfer the responsibility for them entirely to Ukraine (to which everything is going now), then the logical consequence should be a complete cessation of support for Kiev by Germany, whose energy security has suffered serious damage. These tough decisions can probably be taken by a new German government led by a new chancellor.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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