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The Future of Xi’s Relationship with Russia Holds Promise

Although an international arrest warrant has been in place for the Kremlin chief since last week, Xi invited him and Mishustin to a return visit to China. China and Russia do not recognize the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court (ICC). Xi called for regular meetings between Chinese and Russian leaders. He wants to strengthen “cooperation and coordination” between the two countries. “I am ready to work out a plan with them to strengthen bilateral ties,” Xi said.

Putin said his country could meet China’s growing energy needs. By 2030, the gas supply should increase to almost 100 billion cubic meters per year. In addition, 100 million tons of liquid gas would be delivered, but also coal and other energy sources. He had held “very significant and frank” talks with the Chinese leader, Putin said in a statement broadcast by Russian state television on Tuesday after meeting Xi in the Kremlin. “I am convinced that our multifaceted cooperation will continue to strengthen for the mutual benefit.”

After the collapse of the European energy market in the course of its war against the Ukraine, the raw materials superpower Russia is increasingly orienting itself towards Asia. China gets the energy at a discount. According to Putin, the trade volume between China and Russia hit a record last year at almost 190 billion US dollars (around 93 billion euros). This year, the value is expected to rise to more than 200 billion US dollars.

Despite the pressure of Western sanctions against Russia, trade is increasing, Putin stressed. He also informed that practically all the prerequisites for a new gas pipeline through Mongolia to China are in place. In the future, 50 billion cubic meters of gas will flow through them. The Kremlin chief also said that Russia is ready to supply agricultural products to China. According to Putin, payments for goods in the Chinese currency yuan and in rubles are also to be expanded. The countries of Africa, Asia and Latin America are also increasingly willing to do this. Russia is pursuing this strategy to weaken the US dollar as a currency.

Xi arrived in Moscow on Monday. It is his first trip abroad since he began his third term earlier this month — and Xi’s first trip to Russia in four years. In an article published in Russia before the Moscow visit for the state-run newspaper Rossisiyskaya Gazeta, Xi wrote that the two countries share the concept of “eternal friendship and mutually beneficial cooperation.” Putin had also invited to the first two meetings of the so-called “Belt and Road” initiative, with which China wants to expand its global commitment through infrastructure projects. The last two meetings took place before the corona pandemic in 2017 and 2019.

According to the head of the Munich Security Conference, Christoph Heusgen, Xi wants to keep Russia in the camp of the authoritarian states with his visit to Moscow. “He wants a weak Putin. He wants to support him so that he stays firmly in the Chinese camp,” Heusgen said on ZDF at the meeting between Xi and Putin. That’s why China’s president won’t ask Russia to withdraw troops from Ukraine on the one hand, but he won’t really supply Putin with weapons on the other – if only to avoid being targeted by Western sanctions. “Xi will never allow Putin to use nuclear weapons,” he adds. “It is very clear who is the cook and who is the waiter.”

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is calling for more initiative from China to ensure peace in Ukraine. Xi’s visit to Moscow would have been an opportunity for that. Instead, however, the deep friendship between the two countries was described, as was the “wonderful” financial year 2022. Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine was not even mentioned in embellished terms. “I find that unfortunate,” said Baerbock at the meeting of the Greens parliamentary group in Weimar. As a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, China has a special responsibility for peace in the world.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian leadership has called on China’s president to hold talks with her as well. “I don’t know, we’re waiting for confirmation,” said Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk when asked when a phone call should take place. The phone call is important, she tells the Corriere della Sera newspaper. “Both have something to say to each other.”

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