As of today, some 8,500 people have died in the Covid-19 epidemic in our country. Demographers, on the basis of data transmitted by Statbel, are already focusing on studying excess mortality, that is to say an abnormally high level of mortality. Experts already qualify the current situation “exceptional”. How can they determine it? By comparing the daily deaths from all causes observed at this time to the average of these same deaths observed during the same period for the previous years. It is assumed that these are expected deaths, that is to say those that would have occurred in the first months of 2020 without Covid-19. A ratio between the number of deaths observed and the number of expected deaths significantly greater than 1 will reflect a situation of excess mortality. For example, a ratio of 2 means that twice as many people die than normal. In percentage terms, an excess mortality of 130% means that for every 100 people who would have died in normal times, 230 people died.
1. What conclusion can we already draw at this stage of the epidemic in Belgium?
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