The Euribor Holds at 15-Year Highs Despite Recent Decrease

You have to go back to November 2008 to see the indicator’s previous peak, when it closed at 4.35%. Its all-time high was a few months earlier, in July of that year, reaching 5.393%.

In practice, the current levels imply that for a loan of 100,000 euros, at 25 years, and with Euribor plus 1%, the monthly fee would become more expensive by about 240 euros. That is, 2,900 euros more per year.

It must be borne in mind, however, that everything depends on the year in which the loan was signed and how much has been amortized since then, since it is at the beginning of the loan when the interest weighs more than the principal.

In addition, the evolution of the indicator does not only affect those who already have a mortgage. It will also condition the decisions of those who search for a new home. As indicated by the financial comparator Kelisto.es, with data obtained from the web pages of the main Spanish banks, the rise in the Euribor “has caused a dance of offers never seen before and that goes in two directions: the variables have become cheaper by a 22.7% in the last year, while the fixed ones have become between 52% and 62% more expensive, depending on the term”, in order to make the former more attractive, which in the current context generate a greater margin for the entities.

“In this context, we have noticed a change in consumer attitude: not only is he more aware of the dangers that the Euribor entails, but also those who want to buy -demand, even if it cannot materialize later, remains high, among other reasons because access to housing via rental also continues to be very stressed- they adjust their accounts a lot, ”explains Estefanía González from Kelisto.com. “The consumer is aware of the extra cost that he will have to face in terms of interest and is looking for more affordable homes than before,” she insists.

And it is that for now, it does not seem that the scenario of high rates imposed by the European Central Bank (ECB) will vary much in the coming months, with most experts anticipating that the Euribor will remain in this environment of 4% of here at the end of the year.

Specifically, the forecast of CaixaBank analysts points to 3.8% at the end of the year, while Bankinter places it at 4.1%. Of course, everyone agrees that after the recent levels, the moderation in the increases will begin to be more noticeable from August.

In fact, the 12-month Euribor fell more than 4 points this Monday to place its daily rate at 4.064%. It already did so last Friday, just after the ECB rate hike, which indicates that the markets are beginning to take a break in this bullish cycle by the monetary body.

«The updated forecasts that we handle indicate that August will be the month in which the containment to which the ECB alludes manifests itself in a first drop in the indicator. From then on, the trend will be stagnation at 4% levels, with a downward trend until the end of the year. We must not forget the impact of exogenous factors such as the slowdown of economies as powerful in the eurozone as the German, Dutch or Italian ones, ”they explain from Asufin.