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The Escalatory Speech of Samir Geagea and the Future of the Presidential Election in Lebanon: Analysis and Updates

After the escalatory speech of the head of the Lebanese Forces party, Samir Geagea, yesterday evening, informed sources told Al-Jumhuriya newspaper that “Geagea’s speech may have two interpretations: the first is that the presidential election is going to become more complicated, because the regional and international climate is still not conducive to its completion. Under the weight of the preoccupations of capitals interested in regional and international files that take priority over the Lebanese file, and this is what allows the opposition team to roam around, adhering to its presidential and political project for the next stage, in the face of the project of the other team.

She pointed out that “the second explanation is that the opposition team may have heard that foreign capitals or some of them interested in Lebanon have reached certain consensuses on the Lebanese file, whose winds do not blow as the opposition ships desire, so they resorted to escalation, trying to thwart these understandings or amend them to serve their interests.” .

The sources confirmed that “the expected developments, starting today, and after the visit of US mediator Amos Hochstein and Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, will reveal the validity of any of these two interpretations.”

Visit Ludrian

And Al-Jumhuriya pointed out that, “In light of this atmosphere, the Chargé d’Affairs of the French Embassy to Lebanon, Herve Mager, is moving, paving the way for the mission of the French presidential envoy, Jean-Yves Le Drian, and ending the ambiguity surrounding it.”

Diplomatic sources told Al-Jumhuriya that “the competent authorities have completed a long list of appointments for the new ambassador with the heads of Lebanese parties and spiritual and partisan leaders, with the aim of getting acquainted, and he has just returned from the” conference of French ambassadors in the world “that was held in the Elysee under the chairmanship of President Emmanuel Macron on Monday. the past”.

And she indicated that “he also had contacts with French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna and Ludrian, where he presented with them the new that ended with their contacts with representatives of the “Paris Five-Way Meeting”, in preparation for his return to Beirut after he spent several days there, before he had to return to Paris to participate in the ambassadors’ conference and spend a whole week there.”

Did Ludrian’s visit end before it began?

In the context, informed political sources stressed to Al-Diyar newspaper that “Siham Geagea, as well as the lack of enthusiasm of the” Shiite duo “for the French role after the words of French President Emmanuel Macron, are factors confirming that Le Drian’s new mission ended before it began, which is likely to be his next visit. sham and to lift the blame.”

The Qatari envoy continues his movement without media and meets “changers” and “independents”

For its part, Al Diyar newspaper reported that, “Waiting for Le Drian’s return, the Qatari security envoy moves silently and away from the media.” Beiruti parliamentary circles revealed to Al Diyar that “the Qatari envoy tours a number of ‘change-altering’ and ‘independent’ representatives, and meets with a number of partisan and political figures who encourage the election of Army Commander Joseph Aoun as a compromise president for the republic.”

The circles indicated that “Abi Fahd”, which is the nickname known to the Qatari official in Lebanon, also met with close associates of the “Shiite duo”, and it is also reported that he met one of the representatives of “Hezbollah”, explaining that “the reasons for secrecy about the return and departure of the Qatari envoy, and resorting to The secrecy in his meetings and secrecy about them, due to Qatar’s preference for the presidential army commander, and Doha’s desire, on the other hand, that the Qatari consultative endeavor, until now, not conflict with the Le Drian dialogue initiative.

And she indicated that “the Qatari envoy will leave Beirut within two or three days, provided that he returns after Le Drian leaves Lebanon after next September 20.”

Cautious optimism

On a level related to the presidential election, circles close to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri confirmed to Al-Jumhuriya that he was “cautiously optimistic about the opportunity for an internal dialogue about the presidential election, after the initiative he launched during the festival on the anniversary of the disappearance of Imam Musa al-Sadr.”

And she emphasized that “despite some Christian and political forces rejecting Berri’s initiative, it remains viable if the Free Patriotic Movement, the majority of the Sunni deputies, and part of the change-making deputies participate in the dialogue, noting that positive signals were issued by those commenting on the Speaker’s proposal.” “.

Meeting of your ministers

On the other hand, ministerial sources pointed out to Al-Jumhuriya that “the General Secretariat of the Council of Ministers has delayed the ongoing preparations for the two cabinet sessions for this week, after one of them was scheduled to take place the day after tomorrow, Wednesday, to complete the research on the draft budget law, and the second on Thursday with an agenda that includes A set of necessary financial and administrative items.

It stated that “the presence of the Ministers of Economy, Amin Salam and Agriculture Minister Abbas Haj Hassan abroad, led to the disruption of these initial appointments, so the idea turned to the possibility of holding the two sessions before noon next Thursday, and after that, pending verification of the presence of one of them in Lebanon. The government boycott of the sessions makes the absence of one minister disruptive.” For a quorum, how about if two ministers are absent?

2023-09-04 05:44:40
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