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The Detonator: Exploring the Impact of Household Debt on the Economy

[앵커]

A YTN project series that looks at the current state of our economy and its future direction.

Today, we will look at household debt, which has been pointed out as the biggest problem in our economy and is referred to as a detonator.

Household debt is reaching an all-time high as investment in not only real estate but also theme stocks is rampant.

First, reporter Eom Yun-ju covered the story.

[기자]

The government introduced various deregulation measures early this year to prevent a hard landing in the real estate market.

We launched the Special Bogeumjari Loan, a policy financial product, and even lifted the total debt service ratio and DSR regulations for rental deposit return loans.

[윤석열 / 대통령 (지난해 12월) : 고금리 상황으로 주택 가격이 하락하는 추세를 보이기 때문에 저희가 수요 규제를 조금 더 빠른 속도로 풀어나가서….]

Afterwards, as the volume of apartment sales began to increase, household loans turned to an upward trend starting last April.

In fact, as the perception that real estate prices had bottomed began to spread along with signs that the housing market had recovered, ‘young people’ who had been hiding due to high interest rates also appeared.

[전희수 / 20대 직장인 : 올해 중반부터 집값이 반등하고 있고 대출 정책도 풀려서 많이들 대출을 알아보고 계시더라고요. 지금보다 집값이 더 올라가고 내 기회가 없어지면 어떻게 하나.]

In addition, the ’50-year mortgage loan’ that banks are rushing to offer has fueled the demand for loans to buy a home.

As the loan limit was increased as a means of circumventing DSR regulations, it was accepted by actual consumers as their last opportunity to buy a home.

[이창용 / 한국은행 총재(지난달) : 50년 만기 대출 같은 것들을 통해서 DSR 규제를 약간 회피하는 방향의 영향을 가진 것들이 복합적으로 작용해서….]

Young people who cannot even think of buying a house have turned to the stock market.

Investment money was focused on theme stocks that repeatedly rose and fell, and debt investment, which involves borrowing money to invest, also increased rapidly.

[이용훈 / 30대 직장인 : 요새는 경기가 어렵다보니까 월급만으로는 생활 수준을 유지하기 어렵다고 봐서 기회가 왔을 때 한번 벌고 싶다는 욕심도 있다 보니까.]

Meanwhile, household debt continued to grow inexorably.

Centered on housing mortgage loans, it increased by the largest amount in 3 years and 6 months and reached an all-time high in terms of balance.

[주원 / 현대경제연구원 경제연구실장 : 가계부채가 많은 상황에서 바깥에서 위기가 들어온다는 거는 이제 결국은 우리 국민들의 소득이 준다는 거거든요. 갑자기 소득이 감소하면 부채를 상환 못 하고 그럼 가계가 파산하고, 가계 파산이 많아지면 그 돈을 빌려준 금융기관이 파산하고.]

In the end, the financial authorities hastily stepped in to tighten loans by putting the brakes on 50-year mortgage loans and special mortgage loans, but it is already a relief after the fact.

It was also pointed out that the government’s macroprudential policy and the Bank of Korea’s monetary policy were out of sync.

Whether household debt, which is considered the detonator of our economy, will increase in the future actually depends on the trends of the real estate market.

However, as housing demand shows no signs of subsiding for some time, its size is expected to increase and continue to weigh on our economy.

This is YTN Eom Yun-ju.

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2023-09-28 21:45:00
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