We would end up forgetting it given the weight of the financial markets, but bank credit remains an important resource for companies in the United States. According to Goldman Sachs, combined bank and mortgage loans were around $6.1 trillion at the start of 2023, around 24% of GDP. 58% owned by the banks themselves (the rest by investors), it weighed four-fifths of negotiable debt securities.
Fortunately, large firms have direct access to these, and the self-financing capacity of companies is higher than in 2000 or 2007.
Experts studying the impact, which varies greatly depending on the sector, nevertheless believe that the scarcity bank credit could cost between a quarter and a half point of GDP in 2023, by slowing down investments, but also hiring in the hotel and restaurant industry and SMEs.
To note
The sectors that consume the most bank loans for their investments include industry, real estate and the information sector. According to Goldman Sachs’ “intensity” calculations, every dollar of GDP produced by industry uses 36 cents of loans, compared to an average of 24 cents for the US economy.
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