The barometer of new real estate prices from the real estate laboratory

The number of collective dwellings authorized over 12 months reached its lowest point in March 2021 (179,000 apartments, according to figures from the Ministry of Ecological Transition). Although the volumes of permits authorized are once again on the rise, more than 20,000 housing units are still missing to return to the level of permits measured before the start of the pandemic (February 2020: 233,700 collective housing units authorized over 12 rolling months) . In this context of the scarcity of the supply of new housing, the rise in new property prices is accelerating.

New apartments costing almost 5,200 € / m² on average

In November 2021, the average price of a new apartment was 5,195 € / m² in municipalities with more than 45,000 inhabitants in mainland France. This new record is the result of an average price increase of + 5.7% over the last 12 months, at constant scope.

For the moment, there is nothing to suggest a slowdown in the rise in prices. “The current tensions on raw materials and the supply of construction sites, the rise in the prices of materials and energy are all factors that contribute to the inflation of new prices and to the chronic insufficiency of the production of new housing in relation to needs ” observes Franck Vignaud, Director of the Real Estate Laboratory.

“Of course, the risks of inflation could lead banks to raise their interest rates, thus reducing the borrowing capacity of potential buyers, which may ultimately have a moderating effect on real estate prices. But for the moment, nobody knows if this inflation is temporary or if it will be registered in the long term ” continues Franck Vignaud. “In addition, interest rates remain at a historically low level and only a sharp rise could have a significant impact on demand. Moreover, let us not forget that investors are protected from inflation by the indexation of rents to consumer prices, which should not alter their appetite for real estate ”.

TOP 15: more moderate increases in Paris… and in Le Havre

The “technical” pause in Parisian prices measured 6 months ago (end of the marketing of certain programs in the most central districts and more abundant supply in more affordable districts) will have been short-lived. In one year, the average price of new homes in Paris rose 3.4% to almost € 12,500 / m².

The acceleration in price increases has become widespread: 9 of the 15 largest municipalities experienced a price increase of more than 6% (compared to only 3 6 months ago). Three of them even show increases of more than + 8%: Rennes (+ 9.7%), Toulouse (+ 8.4%) and Grenoble (+ 8.1%). Rennes thus climbs from 8th to 6th place in the ranking, while the positions of Toulouse and Grenoble remain unchanged.

Behind Paris, Lyon and Nice are currently the only municipalities in the TOP 15 whose average price exceeds € 6,000 / m², with € 6,386 / m² and € 6,098 / m² respectively.

The ranking of the following 5 municipalities, Nantes, Montpellier, Rennes, Bordeaux and Marseille, still neck and neck in terms of price, has been largely revised. Nantes, Montpellier and Rennes have crossed the € 5,000 / m² barrier and Nantes is now the most expensive of the five, at € 5,169 / m².

At the bottom of the table, Le Havre continues to accumulate the lowest price and the lowest increase in the TOP 15. A new apartment in Le Havre still costs 3.5 times less than in Paris.

“In 1 year, the prices of the TOP 15 municipalities have increased by 5.8%, a rate barely greater than that observed at the national level. Unlike old real estate, we are not witnessing a surge in prices in medium-sized cities and a decline in large metropolises. The average difference between the price of large metropolitan areas and that of medium-sized towns in our study remains very high, around 900 € / m² if we exclude Ile-de-France ” specifies the Director of the Real Estate Laboratory.

Levallois-Perret and Boulogne-Billancourt more expensive than some Parisian arrondissements

With average prices close to or even above 12,000 € / m², Levallois-Perret and Boulogne-Billancourt are currently more expensive than the popular 18th arrondissement in Paris. Issy-les-Moulineaux completes the trio of the most expensive suburban towns at € 9,782 / m², up 7.5%.

On the Petite Couronne, prices can vary from single to triple. In Hauts-de-Seine, only Colombes and Nanterre have new properties at less than € 6,000 / m². Nanterre is the Ile-de-France commune where prices have increased the least in a year (this was already the case 6 months ago), with an increase of barely 2.1%.

“Despite the rise in prices, Seine-Saint-Denis remains the last sector in the Petite Couronne where buyers can still find new homes at less than € 5,000 / m², without benefiting from VAT at 5.5%. This is the case for Bobigny, Bondy, Drancy, Le Blanc-Mesnil, Noisy-le-Grand or even Rosny-sous-Bois, while all these municipalities will soon welcome a station of the future Grand Paris Express, which has the effect of to increase prices… ” notes Franck Vignaud.

Province: apartments priced at € 4,770 / m² on average

If we exclude the large regional metropolises, notably Lyon and its 4th arrondissement at € 7,977 / m², it is in Annecy that the prize for the highest price goes with € 6,895 / m², followed by Antibes at 6 € 500 / m² and Villeurbanne with € 5,679 / m². The latter, considered the 10th arrondissement of Lyon, has recorded a spectacular increase of 8.8% in one year. The average monthly net income of a Villeurbanne household composed of 2 people being approximately € 3,100, the latter can at best acquire a T2 of 43 m² according to the estimates of the Real Estate Laboratory (assumptions: personal contribution of 10%, loan over 20 years, no other credit in progress).

The most affordable prices are found in the northern half of France. It is indeed possible to find new properties for less than 3,300 € / m² in Dunkirk (3,276 € / m²), Laval (3,236 € / m²) or even Cherbourg (3,191 € / m²). A Cherbourg household of 2 people with an average monthly net income of € 2,900, lower than in Villeurbanne, can thus buy the equivalent of a new T3 of 71 m² (assumptions: personal contribution of 10%, loan over 20 years, no other credit in progress).

“Municipalities usually appearing among the cheapest, such as Saint-Etienne and Limoges, crossed the 3,500 € / m² bar for the first time, a sign that the rise in prices is even affecting areas hit by a demographic decline since several censuses” notes Franck Vignaud.

“We indicated 6 months ago that all the conditions were met for a continued rise in prices. The situation is even more tense today and new constraints will weigh on prices in the coming months: the implementation of the RE2020, the Pinel + system or the refusal to revise or extend the Pinel zoning. despite the experimentation carried out in Brittany… We are probably only at the beginning of a cycle of strong increases ” concludes the Director of the Real Estate Laboratory.

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