Both friends and foes of Vladimir Putin are aware of the ripple effects of the Russian president’s invasion of Ukraine.
In February alone, the flight tracking service Flightradar24 observed around 1,000 private flights from Russia, of which 300 were between 24 and 27 February, the days after the Russian invasion were a fact.
– RING EFFECTS: Several Russians are aware of the economic ripple effects of Putin’s war in Ukraine. Illustration photo. Photo: Darko Vojinovic / AP / NTB
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Russians travel for various reasons. Some have been critical of Putin and fear for their security, others are trying to escape the consequences of the West’s heavy sanctions on Russia in the hope that their Russian fortunes will survive the loss or that they will escape the rules.
Both opponents and supporters of Putin have one thing in common; they are increasingly concerned about what the war will mean for their future in Russia.
Brain drain
Earlier this week, Ilya Krasilshchik, technology director and editor of the independent news site Meduza, packed her most important assets in three suitcases.
With a one-way ticket to Dubai in hand, he told the Financial Times that his home country “was heading for the abyss” and that he was leaving.
The hope is to escape the spiral of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and Western sanctions.
– The country we lived in has been destroyed. What future does a country have where checkisty has taken power, he told the newspaper, referring to the Soviet word for security services.
– I do not think such a country has any future. All it can do is survive.
– FLIGHTS: Tens of thousands of Russians are now leaving their homeland in the hope of escaping the spiral of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Here from the airport in Moscow. Illustration photo. Photo: Stringer / Reuters / NTB
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He is just one of several leading figures in the Russian technology and business world who are now moving their office addresses outside Putin’s borders.
Recently, thousands of wealthy Russians have made the same journey
– Brain drain is always a big problem, says senior researcher at the Norwegian Institute of Foreign Policy (NUPI), Jakub M. Gozimirski, to TV 2.
He himself has worked with Russian foreign and security policy at the institute for over 20 years.
– SENIOR RESEARCHER: Senior researcher Jakub Gozimirski at NUPI believes Putin’s war in Ukraine will lead to brain drain from Russia. Photo: Sveinung Kyte / TV 2
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According to the senior researcher, there are mainly three reasons why wealthy Russians are fleeing abroad now: dissatisfaction with Putin’s policies, poor career opportunities in his home country and greater demand for work elsewhere, where the payslip is not paid in Russian rubles.
“People see that they possess knowledge that is in high demand elsewhere in the world, at the same time as their prospects in Russia are getting worse,” he says.
– The fact that the currency has fallen so dramatically since the war began has led to many people suddenly earning up to 30 percent less now than they did only last week, he adds.
Prima ballerina with sharp criticism
Gozimirski points out that many of those now traveling are doing so as a kind of protest against Putin’s policies and regime, especially after the invasion of Ukraine.
Among them is the famous Russian prima ballerina Olga Smirnova (30), who fled to the Netherlands earlier this week after condemning Putin’s war on social media, according to Huffington Post.
In the message, which was published on the app Telegram, the dancer wrote that she was against the war “with all the fibers in her body”, and that she never thought she “would be ashamed of Russia”.
– CRITICAL: Prima ballerina Olga Smirnova, who among other things has danced in the world-famous ballet Swan Lake, has left Russia for the Netherlands after she publicly criticized Putin on the app Telegram. Photo: Yann Coatsaliou / AFP / NTB
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As a result, she stopped dancing at the world-famous Bolshoi Ballet in Moscow with immediate effect after being their prima ballerina for six years, and instead began at the National Ballet in Amsterdam.
– For some it is a political demonstration to leave Russia, and they travel because they do not see a future in the regime, which they feel is about to turn back time, Godzimirski explains.
According to BBC Smirnova is not alone in criticizing Putin among Russia’s cultural elite. The former artistic director of the Bolshoi Ballet, Alexei Ramansky, and the former lead dancer of the Mariinsky Ballet, Diana Vishneva, have also been vocal about their opposition to the Ukraine invasion on social media.
Trying to escape sanctions
It is also not just a flight of people from Russia, but also a flight of money as Russian oligarchs have invested values in the billions abroad rather than at home in Russia.
This has led to destinations such as Dubai becoming a popular destination for Russia’s richest, and according to Financial Times Several of the country’s oligarchs have emigrated there in an attempt to escape Western sanctions recently.
– INVESTMENT MECCA: Several rich Russians and oligarchs have invested heavily in Dubai. Many of them are now traveling there to escape Western sanctions against them. Photo: Aijaz Rahi / AP / NTB
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Putin’s supporters are also leaving Russia.
– Many oligarchs focus on what is referred to as risk diversification. That is, they have probably placed some of their wealth in Russia, some in Western banks and offshore accounts, and some other places that they hope Western sanctions do not extend to, Godzimirski explains.
Enormous losses in the Russian stock market, a currency on a collision course and a total halt in Western investment in the home country have thus led to Putin’s supporters also feeling the economic consequences of war.
This is not something the senior researcher thinks will change in the first place.
– Today’s development will probably lead to it not being very attractive to move back to Russia even if there is a peace agreement around Ukraine.
Russia skepticism
But Godzimirski adds that it is not a new phenomenon that Russia’s elite is moving abroad.
– The richest have in many ways left Russia a long time ago, both in the sense that they have stayed outside Russia’s borders for many years, but also because they have tried to become part of the global power elite and have placed large parts of their fortunes in the West for fear of being deprived of their assets from the Russian state, he says.
The senior researcher still believes that it may be more difficult for Russians, including in the technology sector, to emigrate to the West.
– In the technological environment, Russians can on the one hand be perceived as political refugees from Putin’s Russia, but we have also seen that Norway and the rest of the world show a certain suspicion towards people with a Russian background, he adds.
– SUSPECT: Senior researcher Jakub Godzimirski at NUPI believes the West will be more skeptical of Russians working in the technology sector. Here from Moscow City in the capital of Russia. Photo: AFP / NTB
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Among other things, PST has addressed the issue in its threat assessments, Godzimirski emphasizes.
– The fear is that Russian intelligence may place people in key positions in Western technology companies to obtain technology and sensitive information, he says and adds:
– When tens of thousands leave the country, one must reckon with the fact that some not only have personal intentions, but that the Russian state can also benefit from it.
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